Kerry in front, race goes national

After all the remarkable twists of the 2004 presidential race so far, no self-respecting pundit would dare make firm predictions about whom the Democrats will nominate.

But looking ahead to the seven primaries and caucuses of Feb. 3, scattered about the country, all of Sen. John Kerry's opponents face several hard facts:

• The roaring momentum the Massachusetts senator takes away from winning decisively in Iowa and New Hampshire gives him major free media attention that deprives the other campaigns of oxygen.

• All the campaigns are low on funds, but by winning the first two contests, Kerry can make the most credible case to donors that a fresh infusion of cash will go toward a winning cause. Kerry is the only candidate, along with Howard Dean, to opt out of the federal matching system and so can raise and spend unlimited money during primary season. He could also, potentially, write himself another large check.

• Democrats' stronger-than-usual desire to select a nominee early - so the party can aim fully at President Bush - could make the Kerry train harder to stop. In the first two contests, many Democratic voters said they wanted to back the winner, and so far, Kerry is the only one wearing that label.

The big question hanging over Kerry is how his style - seen by some as patrician and aloof - will sell in the South, Midwest, and West. He "has the chance to put it away next week," says analyst Stuart Rothenberg. "He's able to talk about message. All the other candidates are having to try to sound optimistic, and talk about how they can still win. They're in a much more defensive posture."

Analysts say Kerry has done a good job on two things: creating an aura that he's the most electable candidate; and effectively borrowing the "outsider change" arguments and populist economics of the other candidates.

But Kerry has many identities - Northeastern liberal, Vietnam War hero, Vietnam War protester, wealthy Bostonian. They will all be in play as the candidates - and, if Kerry gets the nod, President Bush - fight to craft his image.

The nature of the nomination race now shifts from "retail" politics, where voters get to shake candidates' hands and take their measure in person, to "wholesale" politics, where candidates race from state to state, not venturing far from airports, and presenting themselves in paid advertisements and free news coverage.

Missouri could be the most important state next Tuesday. Of the seven states with Feb. 3 contests, it will send the most delegates, 74, to the convention this summer. Missouri is also a major presidential battleground in the general election, and so appeal there is vital. All the campaigns are just starting operations there, since native son Dick Gephardt dropped out of the race.

Kerry will almost certainly come under greater scrutiny - and attack - in coming days. And he still faces rivals such as former Vermont Governor Dean, who could have enough money and supporters to remain competitive for some time. Indeed, Dean signaled the potential for a long battle when he referred in his concession speech to the money he's received from small donors as "how we're going to keep going and going and going."

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