At NASA, dilemmas of transformation

Many experts agree that the space station, costing too much and providing too little science, should have been scrapped long ago. Under Bush's plan, the space station's revised research program is scheduled to end around 2016. But some point to disappointment in the space station as an ominous example of how hard it will be to complete the Mars assignment - and satisfy its vast goals.

To defenders of "pure science" and space robots - and opponents of exclusive investment in manned spaceflight - the trade-off is foolhardy.

"It's incredibly dangerous to send a human up there. And right now, we're doing a good job of seeing Mars through the eyes of a robot," says Robert Park, a physicist at the University of Maryland in College Park. "We are in a remarkable spot here in our solar system and we are going in the wrong direction in an effort to placate space enthusiasts who are still stuck back in the Buck Rogers age. History just didn't turn out that way."

While Bush's plan calls for only $1 billion in new money over five years, that's just the down payment. Some experts believe the cost of a moon base could run over $150 billion. In the meantime, there could be no manned spaceflight for a couple of years after the US grounds the shuttle and ends its involvement in the space station - possibly diminishing public interest and enthusiasm in the cosmos.

"My concern is that this is just a roundabout way of putting NASA out of business," says John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, a defense and space-policy research group. "They're going to shave a little off the top of NASA's budget every few years until it slowly dwindles away, and it's been so long since an American flew in space that most people have forgotten why it's important."

Still, the future of the moon-Mars proposal is uncertain. Space experts note that Bush said nothing about it in last week's State of the Union speech, casting doubt on his seriousness. But mention of the program may also have been omitted due to its apparent lack of support. Indeed, just a week after the plan was unveiled, it's facing growing opposition from both Republicans worried about Bush's excessive spending and Democrats who want him to spend the money on other domestic programs. In addition, a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted earlier this month found that 62 percent of Americans surveyed opposed the new space proposal.

Still, a long-term goal like Mars is essential to maintaining US prominence, says Richard Berendzen, who for years has told NASA that it lacks focus.

"Our country leads the world in medical breakthroughs, space science, and the arts and music," says the physics professor at American University. "We shouldn't simply hunker down and worry about survival. What makes a nation great is being able to think the big thoughts in the middle of a struggling economy and a war on terrorism."

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