A drawn-out Democratic battle?

Then there's the congenial Southerner, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina. He just needs to "show" here, capture a solid third place, before he moves on to his home territory. The fourth contender, Gen. Wesley Clark, although losing ground in the polls, still has a national reputation and an army of former Clinton advisers to keep him afloat after New Hampshire.

"People thought it was going to be over by Feb. 3, but that's less likely now," says Candice Nelson, director of the Campaign Management Institute in Washington D.C. "Dean and Kerry have the potential to raise more money because they've opted out of the public financing system," she says. "Edwards and Clark have a political disadvantage on the money side, but that's offset by the fact they're both from the South."

While party leaders don't necessarily like a drawn-out fight because of the toll it takes on the eventual nominee, some analysts see at least some virtue in a spirited nomination process.

"The good thing about a primary fight is that the eventual nominee gets better known and is tested by all of the various criticisms that pop up," says Mr. West. "But the downside is that the more Democrats slice one another up. It saves Republicans from having to do it."

Downside to frontloading

There's another downside to frontloading the process, too: Bunched, early primaries can lead to the election of what Anthony Corrado of the Brookings Institute calls a "brush fire" candidate.

"If a candidate can catch a wave at the right time, that momentum can catapult him to the nomination, even if he may not be the best choice for the party," says Dr. Corrado.

Just a few weeks ago, Mr. Dean was the man with the "Big Mo." He was going to take Iowa and New Hampshire and ride off with the nomination. But this week Kerry has taken on the mantle of would-be conqueror. If Kerry does win big here, he could well have the nomination wrapped up by early February.

While that would presumably give Democrats plenty of time to unite around one candidate and focus on the real target - George W. Bush - it could also alienate some of the party faithful. Corrado points out that, even if it takes until early March to choose a nominee, there is still likely to be one chosen even before a large share of the Democratic voters get to know the candidates and before 20 states have gone to the ballot box.

"So the system essentially disenfranchises 30 to 40 percent of the Democratic primary voters," he says. "Which means you have less participation, less knowledge about the candidates, and less engagement in the process by party members."

That's prompting some party activists to call for yet another reform of the system. But right now, eyes are focused on New Hampshire and the winnowing process that continues next Tuesday at the ballot box.

"It may end soon, but not necessarily next week," says William Mayer, a political scientist at Northeastern University in Boston. "It may drag on for a couple of weeks, but I'd be very surprised it if lasted beyond mid-March."

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