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A drawn-out Democratic battle?

Nomination fight could extend well into March -- or even later.



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By Alexandra Marks, Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor / January 22, 2004

MANCHESTER, N.H.

John Kerry is on a roll. And Mary Durant is ready to ride with him.

After weeks of uncertainty about which candidate to support, this raven-haired Manchester Democrat emerged from a gymnasium packed with veterans and Kerry supporters a committed woman.

"I think he's got the right message, the right attitude, and the will to do it," she says, almost glowing as she clutches a glossy copy of "American Windsurfer" magazine with a picture of Mr. Kerry on the cover and the headline: "The Windsurfer Who Could Be President."

If Ms. Durant has her way, the Massachusetts senator will be nominated in short order "for the good of the party." Many in the Democratic establishment would like to see the same thing: not Kerry, per se, but at least some Democrat - reasonably soon.

Indeed, party leaders intentionally "frontloaded" the primary process, crowding together the post-New Hampshire caucuses and primaries to avoid the kind of drawn-out primary battle that could leave the eventual nominee broke and politically battered by his own party.

But despite Kerry's growing lead here in New Hampshire, some political analysts believe the nomination fight could now last well into March or even later, as it did in 1992 when Bill Clinton didn't wrap up the nomination until he swept New York and a handful of other primaries in early April.

It all depends, to some extent, on Kerry. If he wins, and wins big here in New Hampshire, that could propel him into the Feb. 3 "super Tuesday" races with a commanding lead and crucial media coverage that will be difficult for the other candidates to overcome.

"If Kerry wins by 20 points or more, that would be a very convincing victory and that would make him a convincing candidate," says Darrell West, a political scientist at Brown University in Providence, R.I. "But he still needs to demonstrate support in other regions."

And here in New Hampshire the race remains highly volatile.

Premature epitaphs

Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, though still recovering from the so-called "Dean Scream," has a solid base of support and a coffer full of cash. While many pundits have written him off, they had also written the epitaph for Kerry just a few weeks ago. Dean supporters believe their candidate regained his balance during Thursday night's television appearances: He held his own during the debate, showed a human side when he and his wife were interviewed by Diane Sawyer, and displayed a sense of humor on the David Letterman Show.

And then there's the fairness issue. Some voters here now think it was the media that went over the top in the way it played the damaging clip over and over.

"It's been played so much, it has dampened his support," says Eric Johnston, a chief financial officer from Manchester. "But people think the media's distorted it."

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