Next battles get bigger

"What's going to happen on [Feb. 3] is very unclear," says one Democratic campaign strategist. "Probably the likeliest outcome is that there will be a split result."

Kerry and Edwards both have raised significant amounts of money on the heels of their Iowa victories. But so has Dean: His campaign reported raising more than $500,000 on the Internet since Monday. And Kerry and Edwards are still playing catch-up, having raised far less than Dean or Clark in the fourth quarter of last year.

And Kerry is behind by most measures in the Feb. 3 races. He pulled staff out of those states months ago, in an all-out effort to win in Iowa, and he is also the only top-tier candidate who has not been running ads in any of those places.

The state that has garnered the most attention so far is South Carolina, which offers a critical test of the candidates' appeal in the South and with African-American voters.

Analysts say South Carolinians are only just beginning to tune into the race - and that Edwards's strong showing in Iowa has already positioned him well there.

Despite the impending New Hampshire contest, the North Carolina senator took time to stop by South Carolina this week - and some say the New Hampshire results may not matter as much at this point.

"As long as he doesn't just utterly bomb out in New Hampshire, he'll be a major factor here," says Jim Guth, a political scientist at Furman University in Greenville, S.C.

Still, it's likely to be a highly competitive race. Edwards has had the largest ground force in South Carolina to date, focusing on rural areas, the black community, and college campuses. Dean also has college networks, though most organizational meetings at the College of Charleston have been averaging around 15 students.

And while most candidates are relying on volunteers, Clark is actually hiring students to canvas, the only one to do so. Kerry (who until recently was languishing behind Carol Moseley-Braun in state polls) is focusing on swaying older voters and veterans.

The Rev. Al Sharpton has also made a strong push in the state, focusing on black churches.

A critical factor may be whether popular African-American Rep. James Clyburn, who had endorsed Dick Gephardt, now throws his weight behind someone else.

Candidates are also making big plays for Arizona and Oklahoma. And Missouri has suddenly become the biggest wild-card of the day - with campaigns furiously working to win endorsements and support in the state in the wake of Gephardt's departure.

Since no one has an organization there to speak of, money could be the most important factor, giving Dean and Clark an advantage. Kerry and Clark are also hoping for support from the state's many veterans.

"The campaigns are scrambling to try to find ways to get an organization going," says Missouri Democratic chairwoman May Scheve.

The state could also wind up supplanting South Carolina as an even more important test, since no candidate has a regional advantage there.

Missouri was a key battleground in the 2000 general election, and is likely to be one of the most contested states this year as well - creating another incentive for Democratic candidates to prove they can run well there.

• Patrik Jonsson in Raleigh, N.C. , and Linda Feldmann in Washington contributed to this report.

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