Next battles get bigger

With the New Hampshire primary just four days away, the battle for the Democratic nomination may be focused on the Granite State. But behind the scenes, campaigns are gearing up for what will follow immediately thereafter: a multistate war.

The flurry of primaries that will come just one week from Tuesday is already putting financial and scheduling pressures on campaigns, forcing them to make critical decisions on where to send staff and purchase advertising. In a race with at least four strong contenders, it also adds a layer of unpredictability, creating a variety of potential paths to the nomination - and a looming roadblock that could quickly solidify or upend the dynamics of the race.

Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, where the contest is largely about momentum, the contests on Feb. 3 - in South Carolina, Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Missouri, North Dakota, and Delaware - will award 269 delegates. And while New Hampshire and Iowa are intimate exercises in retail politics, the multistate phase that follows will put a premium on money and organization.

Significantly, the current front-runner in New Hampshire, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, has spent far less time and money in the Feb. 3 states than his rivals. Kerry is betting that a win in New Hampshire will create enough of a bounce to carry him through to victory in the primaries that follow - which may well happen. But should he lose here, he could have a harder time getting back on track.

Moreover, even if Kerry wins in New Hampshire, he may still face tough competition from candidates such as Sen. John Edwards and retired Gen. Wesley Clark, who have made Feb. 3 a cornerstone of their strategy all along, banking, in particular, on wins in South Carolina.

Perhaps most intriguingly, Feb. 3 could offer former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean - who still has the most money and volunteers of any candidate - his best shot at a comeback.

In the case of Missouri, for example - which holds the most delegates of any of the Feb. 3 states, and has suddenly become wide open with the withdrawal of Rep. Dick Gephardt - analysts suggest Dean might be able to pull off a win with a massive infusion of cash and manpower.

"This is why money matters," says Stuart Rothenberg, an independent political analyst in Washington. "You have opportunities that develop. If you can throw some big money on TV [in a state] and nobody else is doing stuff, you can steal it - legally steal it."

Certainly, New Hampshire will still play a critical role in shaping the field - and influencing what happens on Feb. 3. History shows that the eventual nominees almost always finish at least in the top three in Iowa and the top two in New Hampshire.

And it's possible that the compressed calendar will make the New Hampshire results even more important than ever before, since losers will have little time to recover - a dynamic that is already playing out in the wake of the Iowa caucuses, as Kerry has shot ahead of Dean in the polls.

Still, there are reasons to believe that the effect could also be the opposite. Several candidates have already made clear they won't drop out of the race, regardless of what happens in the Granite State: All the top-tier candidates claim to have enough money to fight through Feb. 3, and several say they could go on beyond that.

The outcome of the seven primaries themselves could decisively tip the race, or muddy it further.

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