In Iowa, suddenly it's a race of four

Five days before the Iowa caucuses, the race here is suddenly transforming from a two-man contest into a round-robin scramble among four Democratic candidates.

Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt remain locked in close competition for first place. But in an unusual twist, the third and fourth place contenders - John Kerry and John Edwards - are showing new signs of momentum, dramatically shrinking the gap between all four men.

While the growing competitiveness reflects an inevitable last-minute tightening, other dynamics are at work as well that show how unusually fluid the race has become - and how vulnerable front-runner Dean remains.

To be sure, much of the contest at this stage may come down to turnout, where Dr. Dean and Mr. Gephardt hold a clear advantage, given Gephardt's union support and Dean's legions of volunteers. But the race is also hinging on the state's undecided voters, among whom Mr. Kerry and Mr.

Edwards seem to be having a bigger impact. Both men have gotten last-minute boosts from endorsements - Edwards from The Des Moines Register, and Kerry from the wife of the governor. Both may also be benefiting from an underdog appeal.

At the same time, some Iowans seem to be having second thoughts about front-runner Dean, who turned in a lackluster debate performance in Des Moines on Sunday, and who has been under attack from his rivals for weeks.

Although the number of undecided voters has been steadily shrinking - now down to 12 percent - as many as 4 in 10 likely caucusgoers say they remain open to changing their minds. As a result, many longtime observers believe the race is even closer than it appears.

"There's a lot of undecided folks, and a lot of folks that say they've chosen a candidate but would be willing to be swayed," says Gordon Fischer, chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party. "I really think the front-runner is 'undecided.' "

One factor that may be contributing to Kerry and Edwards's rise is a shift in the backdrop of issues surrounding the campaign - and in particular, the diminishing centrality of the Iraq war.

For most of the campaign, the war dominated town halls and kaffeeklatsches here, boosting Dean and hindering his three main opponents, all of whom voted in favor of the Iraq resolution. Kerry especially seemed dogged by the issue, struggling repeatedly to explain his vote to Democratic audiences.

But in the wake of the capture of Saddam Hussein, the war has receded somewhat from the campaign trail. Noting that his candidate has gone for days without encountering a question on the war, one Democratic aide concludes that it's a combination of factors: "The war is less on people's minds right now," and more important, "people who are undecided are not basing their vote on the war."

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