Volatile nuclear rivals begin to talk

Monday's handshake "is just a beginning of a peace bid and they have to cover the long and difficult way to find solution to the dispute of Kashmir. They have to cross hurdles wisely otherwise there is the danger of tripping ... as in the past," says a Western diplomat.

Sources say there has been back-stage diplomacy going on at an official and unofficial level in New Delhi and Islamabad for more than six months to pave the way for meaningful dialogue.

In recent months, relations improved with a resumption of air and railway links, reinstatement of ambassadors, and a cease-fire along the Line of Control that divides the Kashmir valley.

Mr. Vajpayee started his visit to Pakistan by showing his willing to talk with Pakistan on all the issues, including the main issue of Kashmir, which in recent times India has refused to do till "terrorism is curbed."

"These are negotiations about (setting up) the terms and conditions for a sustainable peace process between India and Pakistan," says C. Rajaj Mohan, professor of South Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi.

Indeed, no matter what other motivations India may have, its line in the sand remains stability in Kashmir, analysts say. "Yet India wants a stable Pakistan next door, but none of these other concerns are going to change their basic position on Kashmir, which is that there has to be a termination of Pakistani support for the cross-border insurgency," says Harrison. "That's the minimum national interest that Vajpayee will defend no matter what."

Brookings's Cohen says it may turn out that the US pressured both sides behind the scenes to give this very public and symbolic show of renewed cooperation. "Both sides are probably expecting some reward from the US, perhaps economic, for making this gesture, and they should get it," he says.

At the same time, Harrison says the meeting between the two rivals also fits into the Indian leader's vision, often referred to publicly of late, for a counterweight of cooperation in the region to what he sees as American unilateralist diplomacy.

After siding with the US in its war against terrorism, Musharraf has angered extremists by banning Kashmiri and sectarian militant groups fighting in Indian-administered Kashmir as scores of the militants have been arrested.

Vajpayee, the leader of hard-line ruling party, Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), of India, faces opposition from the extremists on his peace initiative. But Delhi feels the continued losses in Indian-administered Kashmir, that have claimed more than 50,000 lives since 1989.

"By achieving a peace formula both Musharraf and Vajpayee can help each other," says analyst Mohan.

"If the guns are silent in Kashmir, then Vajpayee will benefit in the forthcoming general elections this year. If Vajpayee is ready to talk on Kashmir, then Musharraf will take credit that his peace initiatives have brought India an agreeing to talk on Kashmir," he says.

But the road to peace between the two countries is fragile. Vajpayee and Musharraf both face domestic pressures from the extremists.

"Any solution to Kashmir without the Kashmiris is not acceptable to us," says a militant of the banned Kashmiri group, Harkat-ul Mujahideen. "If the guns are silent in Kashmir then India will again dodge Pakistan. Jihad is the only way to liberate Kashmir where its security forces have been killing innocent Muslims."

The Pakistan-based veteran Kashmiri politician and former prime minister of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, Sardar Abdul Qayyum, welcomes the Vajpayee-Musharraf meeting.

"We are very hopeful. If they include Kashmiris in the negotiations then we (Kashmiris) will be able to facilitate the talks between Pakistan and India," says Mr. Qayyum.

For that reason, the Pakistani and Indian diplomats are cautious, and want to proceed toward the peace process in phases.

Diplomatic sources say that following the Musharraf-Vajpayee talks, there will likely be a series of confidence-building steps, including visa relaxations, possible opening of consulates in Karachi and Mumbai, and the re-opening of the Khokhrapar border in the southern Sindh Province, which runs along India's Rajhastan desert and Gujarat state, and bus service from Muzaffarabad (capital city of Pakistan administered Kashmir) to Srinagar.

Diplomats say such confidence building measures will pave way for diplomatic level talks between Pakistan and India before the announcement of formal talks between the political leadership.

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