Volatile nuclear rivals begin to talk

Less than two years after skating on the edge of nuclear warfare, archrivals India and Pakistan are cautiously shaking hands once again.

Although the issue of Kashmir remains as thorny as ever, the two South Asian powers appear to have decided that they have more to gain from easing tensions than by coming to blows.

A surprise 65-minute meeting Monday between Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf in the latter's capital of Islamabad symbolizes a thaw in relations that began almost imperceptibly last year but which diplomats predict will lead to further confidence-building measures.

Coming less than a month after General Musharraf escaped two assassination attempts at home, the meeting suggests India may have decided it is better off with the existing regime next door than with any likely alternative in the hotbed of Islamic extremism. For its part, Pakistan is hoping the economic dividends of eased relations will help stave off the fundamentalists' appeal.

Yet despite the common interest in lowered tensions, the building of relations is more likely to resemble a slow thaw than the kind of spectacular warming that proved disappointing in the past, analysts say.

"This time [Prime Minister] Vajpayee and Musharraf are showing wisdom to adopt steady steps to achieve sustainable peace rather than dashing towards [the] finishing line," says Shamim Akhtar, a professor at the University of Karachi. "The decades-old foes cannot be friends overnight. There is a history of rivalry, mistrust, and bloodshed, and it takes time to forget and forgive."

Indeed, Mr. Vajpayee may have been anxious not to demonstrate too much enthusiasm for renewed contact with the Pakistani leadership, but at the same time a scheduled visit to the Pakistani capital for a regional cooperation meeting left him little alternative, some analysts say,

"For Vajpayee, he was going to be there anyway for a SAARC [South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) meeting, so he faced a dilemma," says Selig Harrison, director of the Asia Project at the Center for International Policy in Washington. "If he hadn't met Musharraf, it would have conflicted with the role of peace developer he's trying to play, and it wouldn't have played well with a watching world."

Beyond that, the recent attempts on Musharraf's life may have acted as a wakeup call for both sides, others say.

"The assassination attempts probably left the Indians thinking that while [Musharraf] may not be exactly to their liking, he's better than chaos in Pakistan," says Stephen Cohen, a South Asian expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington. As for Musharraf, "He may have finally been convinced that what he thought were some of his best friends" - the extremists whose activities have vaulted him to a secure pedestal in the eyes of Washington - "are actually his worst enemies."

When added to stepped-up regional pressures, in particular from China, to address tensions in the area, the stew of elements means conditions are improving for new tension-easing steps on the basic stumbling block of Kashmir.

"The tensions always ease in the winter, when the snows in the mountains prevent a lot of activity, but India wants these efforts to carry over into the spring when things will really count," says Mr. Harrison. "India wants a respite from the attacks by the cross-border Islamic insurgency, and they will be watching for how much Musharraf will rely be willing to do on that."

Pakistan and Indian diplomats are treading very cautiously after latest Musharraf and Vajpayee meeting as their last attempt of "friendship" in Agra in India failed miserably and the two countries witnessed the worst phase of their relationship, especially after suspected Kashmiri militants stormed the Parliament in Delhi in December, 2001.

"Both leaders welcome the recent steps for normalcy of relationship between the two countries and express the hope that the process will continue," the Indian foreign minister, Yashwant Sinha said after the meeting.

New Delhi and Islamabad had suspended air and rail links and withdrawn ambassadors, triggering fears in the international community that the two countries could fight another war. Since then, the international community has been pushing them to negotiate.

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