Hussein's fall sends ripples through Mideast

Syria has been providing Washington with useful intelligence on Al Qaeda, Mr. Hudson says. "They hoped to get off the terrorism list, but instead they find themselves in more trouble with Washington," with the passage of a Syria Accountability Act this fall that requires punishing measures against Damascus.

Saddam's capture is likely to reinforce the priorities and preoccupations that others of Iraq's neighbors were already watching out for, experts say, including:

• Iran, favoring the emergence of a stable and geopolitically nonthreatening Iraq, will continue to maneuver for a friendly - and Shiite-dominant - regime to result from its neighbor's transition. In what was perhaps the quickest response among Iraq's neighbor's, Iran said last week it wants any trial of Hussein to take up Iraq's war crimes. The Iranian government said it wanted an international tribunal to take up "the crimes of the dictator," adding that besides the Iraqi people, others have grievances to take up in an international venue.

• Saudi Arabia is worried that Hussein's capture and trial could further tarnish the image of Iraq's Sunni Muslims - who have ruled the country despite their minority status - and weaken their claims to an important role in the country's future governance. The Saudi regime, which had already responded to Hussein's fall by loosening the tight reins it keeps on the kingdom's Shiites, shudders at the thought of a pro-Iranian Shiite regime next door. But Saudi rulers will have been heartened, experts say, by calls from some US officials and commentators to now draw Iraq's Sunnis away from the chimera of the old regime and into the promise of a new Iraq.

• Hussein's capture by US forces - and any sense in the region that his trial will be orchestrated by the US - will reinforce the reluctance of Iraq's neighbors to deal with the US-appointed Iraqi Governing Council. That reluctance, some experts say, is one more factor prodding the US to speed the transition to full Iraqi sovereignty.

The US wants Iraq's neighbors to facilitate the transition. For example, the US sees reducing Iraq's international debt as crucial to its economic stabilization and growth. This was exemplified last week by special US envoy James Baker's trip to secure commitments from European nations to forgive or restructure Iraqi debts.

But Arab countries hold a much larger slice of the Iraqi debt - about two-thirds of $120 billion - and will be key to making any debt reduction meaningful.

Freedom House's Mr. Palmer says his experience in Eastern Europe tells him that the spread of democracy in the Middle East will accelerate because "the fall of one dictator in a region unavoidably sends ripples through" neighboring countries.

But American University's Mr. Maksoud cautions that a transition benefiting the region could be slowed if democracy and economic reforms are perceived as following American orders.

"Even among pro-American governments the US is seen as having lost the art of persuasion and having replaced that with the power to dictate," he says. "Saddam's demise alerts them to steps they have to take. But they won't admit it," he adds, "especially if looks like its driven from the outside."

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