Democratic field's biggest foe: Dean 'inevitablity'

Someone forgot the tenth podium. On a crowded stage at the University of New Hampshire Tuesday night, all nine Democratic presidential candidates vied to distinguish their voices in this, the last debate of 2003. But it was the echo from Al Gore's bold endorsement of Howard Dean hours earlier that reverberated loudest, transforming the contest into a referendum on relevancy. For his opponents, the question is no longer "Who can stop Bush?" but "Who can stop Dean?"

His opponents balked at the notion that Dean had been anointed Democratic standard-bearer. And they bristled at co-moderator Ted Koppel's opening remarks, which isolated Dean above his competitors. Perhaps in response, the field plunged into policy, and generally refrained from personal barbs. Still, responses were clearly calculated for political survival, as eight candidates faced the suddenly urgent need to establish a rationale for continuing their campaigns.

"It was kind of hard to hear the debate with the fat lady singing in the background," says David Menefee-Libey, an associate professor of politics at Pomona College, in Claremont, Calif. "[Dean's] role in the presidential field is now completely different from that of any other candidate."

Indeed, by cementing Dean's status as front-runner, Gore enables the former Vermont governor to serve as spokesman for Democrats, Mr. Menefee-Libey says. It also grooms Dean to be fundraiser-in-chief for Democratic candidates nationwide.

Dean's transformation from maverick outsider to establishment powerhouse, of course, does not assure him big victories in key primary contests. In fact, by solidifying his front-runner status, Dean may allow his rivals to gain momentum by exceeding expectations in New Hampshire, where he currently enjoys a wide lead in polls. Bill Clinton did just this in 1992, bouncing back from scandal to second in the Granite State primary, and using the ensuing momentum to capture the nomination.

John Edwards would like to reprise that role, and he sought to distinguish himself the way Clinton did: as a Southern outsider. "I've spent my whole life fighting special interests," he said, arguing that only he had the credibility to take on the powerful lobbyists in Washington who he claims prevent real reform. But his continual emphasis on his unique outside-the-Beltway qualifications left some observers flat.

"He sang one note: I'm an outsider, I'm against lobbyists," says Edward Haley, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College in Claremont, Calif. "He passed up the chance to show himself as a full candidate, as someone with a broader horizon. I don't know if it's too early to run for the vice presidency, but you couldn't help but see his responses in that light."

"Edwards was the most disappointing of them all," says Allan Louden, Director of Debate at Wake Forest University in Winston-Salem, N.C.

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