Dean is probably not the McGovern of Democratic establishment fears

It's too early to say whether Dean's allure will cross party lines. That a fiery outsider in the mold of John McCain or Arnold Schwarzenegger could appeal to independent and Republican voters is hardly as implausible as some Democratic mandarins claim. And Dean's gubernatorial record shows some decidedly centrist tendencies. Democrats have never been able to live by their equivalent of Ronald Reagan's famous 11th Commandment: Thou shalt never criticize another Democrat. There's nothing wrong with assailing Dean on substance: His position on gun control, middle-class taxes, or "reregulation" of business are fair game. But by painting him as a political dead weight, Democrats risk overlooking trends that might prove instrumental for the party, regardless of who tops the ticket.

Since the 2000 election, nearly 10 percent of voters aged 18 to 29 have shifted from the Republican to the Democratic camp, the biggest demographic swing seen in a recent Pew poll. While Bush deserves some of the credit for putting off America's youth, Dean's e-mail blitzes, meet-ups, and blogfests surely helped. By signalling that Dean is a disaster-in-the-making, the party establishment risks alienating young, passionate Democrats who are working to take on college Republicans and whose support the party badly needs.

Dean has done more than just draw new voters. His "power to the people" message, reliance on small donors, and use of the Internet have enlivened the race, offering a counterpoint to party rank-and-file defeatism in the face of the Bush juggernaut. His methods may also point to one way Democrats can begin to counter the Republican money machine.

Rather than invoking McGovern to vilify Dean, the party establishment should draw a lesson of its own from the 1972 debacle. That McGovern lost despite rising discontent over the Vietnam War and creeping doubts about Watergate was partly a function of Republican success in tarring the senator as a radical. But Nixon built on the Democrats' own openly voiced fears about what McGovern's youthful armies would do to the party.

Rather than handing their opponents the same free shot at Dean, Democrats should recognize how they might be turning Dean's failure into a self-fulfilling - self-defeating - prophecy. By portraying Dean as a left-winger and a pacifist, Democrats are writing the playbook for the Republican campaign against him. Instead, party regulars should be working behind the scenes with his campaign - as with all other viable candidates - to ensure that whoever gets the nomination has a strategy that will strike independent and moderate voters as more McCain than McGovern.

One explanation for party establishment antipathy toward Dean is that his campaign is a threat to the tight network of Democratic donors, power- brokers, and consultant kingmakers. Yet in 2004, the Democrats' appeal will rest on the need to oust an insular, crony-ridden administration that puts insider interests above the will of the people.

Whether Dean is the nominee or not, the electorate - not the elites - is best placed to decide who carries that message.

• Suzanne Nossel, a former senior adviser at the US Mission to the UN, works for a New York media company.

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