A sociologist's Iraqi exit strategy

The US's Iraq problem needs to be addressed by fewer generals and more sociologists, whose vocation it is to understand how societies function and the extent to which they can be restructured. I happen to be one, but this isn't an application for a job. Rather, it's a plea for a realistic approach to social engineering.

The neo-Wilsonian plan to turn Iraq into a "shining, prosperous democracy" - "a model that will change the whole Middle East" - and then bring our troops home fails the social-science test. Practically all attempts to do so in countries less prepared than Germany and Japan have failed. Among the dud democracies are countries as different as Haiti and Cambodia, Nicaragua and South Vietnam.

The most relevant attribute of Iraq is that its citizens are very patriotic. During the British mandate of 1920 to 1932, Iraqis caused tens of thousands of casualties before the British quit.

Today, practically all Iraqis, regardless of their background - from religious fundamentalists to abject secularists - tell anyone who asks them that they want the US to get lost.

Aside from such simplistic Madison Avenue PR as TV ads about how great the lives of American Muslims are, the coalition forces are trying to win the hearts and minds of Iraqis by actually "reconstructing" the country. This includes fixing thousands of school buildings, clinics, bridges, power plants, oil facilities, and much else that was allowed to deteriorate during the Hussein regime.

Fixing the polity entails training cops, professionalizing the civil service, educating judges, and ensuring the freedom of the press, among other tasks.

The cost of this hyper-ambitious program is skyrocketing - not only because of its scope but also because of a combination of local graft and profiteering by US corporations. Thus, the US government is picking up the tab for garbage trucks at $50,000 a piece, prisons at $50,000 per bed, and business training for Iraqi entrepreneurs at $10,000 monthly per student.

Most important, far from satisfying Iraqis, the "reconstruction" is jacking up their expectations. They complain bitterly about the lack of jobs, traffic jams, and poor services. SOC 101 tells us that the more they will be given, the more they will demand from Uncle Sam's seemingly bottomless pockets, and the more resentful they'll grow for not getting all they think they are entitled to get.

SOC 102 teaches that the first phase of democracy, which typically lasts decades, brings an explosion of antisocial behavior. Violent crime, white-collar crime, and rape are all on the rise in Iraq, and likely to be followed by the spread of HIV, the breakup of families, child neglect, and an increase in drug and alcohol abuse.

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