Big Labor: what its seal of approval means

In Democratic primary contests, where the overall rate of participation is typically far lower than in general elections, labor's ability to turn out members gives it even greater sway. In the Iowa caucuses, for example, typically one out of every three participants comes from a union household. And unions are likely to play a big role in other early primary states, such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and, to a lesser extent, New Hampshire. For Dean, this could prove a potent source of strength, even if he falters in the less union-dominated states in the South and Southwest.

Labor's clout in the primary process has been reflected in some of the candidates' stances. On trade, Dean, along with Sens. John Kerry and John Edwards, has modified his past support for free trade to include provisions for fair labor and environmental standards. All the candidates scrambled to release major healthcare plans early on - an issue that the SEIU, in particular, listed as a top priority.

Indeed, many observers credit Dean's healthcare plan, and his status as a doctor, with attracting the SEIU, which represents many workers in the healthcare industry.

But Dean's early opposition to the Iraq war may also have played a part. One of the largest SEIU affiliates, local 1199 in New York, has long ties to the peace movement going to the 1960s, and many members have opposed the Iraq conflict.

In the case of AFSCME, Dean's positions may have been of less consequence than his political strengths. President Gerald McEntee made clear early on that he was looking for a winner, and was reported at different times to be considering backing either Senator Kerry and retired Gen. Wesley Clark. Observers say McEntee's choice of Dean was likely influenced by the former governor's record fundraising - as well as by Dean's unusual ability to draw potential new voters into the process.

"Most people would acknowledge that when the day is over, whoever the Democratic nominee is is going to have the base of the party," says Victor Kamber, a Democratic consultant with labor ties. "So the question is who can attract new people."

Above all, unions "respect a good organizer," which Dean clearly is, says Mr. Kusnet. Combining the Dean campaign's ability to mobilize young people and others on the Internet with labor's more traditional organizational techniques could be formidable. Kusnet also notes a stylistic and rhetorical fit between Dean and the two unions, which represent a growing segment in the labor movement. Dean's tendency to say things like: "You can make a change in your life; I can't do it for you," mirrors the rhetoric of "a good young organizer," says Kusnet; Gephardt offers "an older generation of labor rhetoric."

To some extent, the unions backing Dean versus Gephardt reflect a split within the labor community between service and public-sector employees and old-line industrial workers. Yet experts say that surface split masks a deeper complexity, since individual unions increasingly represent varying sectors, anyway - with Teamsters, for example, as likely to work in the service economy as to drive trucks.

Still, Gephardt has managed to draw some unions into the process that have been less politically active in recent years, and he has even won the support of some that don't always vote Democratic, like the Teamsters. Analysts say this could wind up helping the eventual nominee, regardless of who wins, since those unions are now vested in the process and are likely to be focused on beating President Bush.

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