Bush's challenge: a somber optimism

"Credibility is an elusive thing - and when you lose it, it's hard to get it back," notes Mr. Lockhart, adding wryly, "I know a little something about this."

At the same time, other analysts say that while Bush may bolster his credibility by taking a more direct approach and admitting to setbacks, ultimately he's going to be judged less by his rhetoric than by results.

"He'll only get out of this trap if things truly get better," says Allan Lichtman, a presidential historian at American University.

Yet even without dramatic improvement in Iraq, supporters note that there are a number of factors that may work to Bush's advantage, making the public unusually willing to tough it out. For one thing, polls taken before the war showed that Americans were prepared for a relatively long conflict and occupation.

More important, Bush has managed to frame the conflict in such a way that many Americans feel a significant stake in the outcome. "Here's where this is different from Vietnam," says Republican pollster David Winston. "There was no sense [in Vietnam] of a personal threat to the US. But with this war, there's very much a sense that the outcome will affect the security and safety of individuals [at home]."

While the administration wasn't as "focused" in its communication with the public over the summer, Mr. Winston says, it has done a far better job in recent weeks. In particular, Bush has redirected the public's attention to the larger war on terrorism, emphasizing that success in Iraq remains a critical battle within it.

Certainly, the public's perception of the costs of the war has grown: The number of soldiers killed in combat in the postwar phase now exceeds the number killed during the war itself.

And polls show many Americans disapprove of the $87 billion in military and reconstruction costs. To many, the benefit side of the equation has diminished, too, as no weapons of mass destruction have been found.

"You have a kind of tipping going on," says Steven Kull, a pollster at the Program for International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland, with "the cost-benefit analysis moving to the negative side."

Yet there's also a strong core of support that remains quite high among members of the public who like the president - many of whom also continue to believe that Saddam Hussein was connected in some way to Sept. 11, Mr. Kull notes. Indeed, he argues, that misperception alone reflects just how strongly many Americans want to continue to support the war and the president.

"Americans do not like to feel like they were suckered into something - and they will go pretty far" to justify the idea that they were right.'

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