Bush's challenge: a somber optimism

As violence in Iraq mounts, along with the cost in lives and dollars, President Bush is facing a growing challenge at home in shoring up support for the occupation.

Despite the White House's recent PR offensive - striving to publicize positive developments in Iraq and blaming the media "filter" for highlighting negative news - polls show that public approval of Mr. Bush's handling of the postwar situation has fallen off. Only a bare majority of Americans now believe the war was worth it, down 24 points from Bush's declaration of the end of combat operations last May.

In many ways, Bush is facing the same balancing act that has tested presidents from Abraham Lincoln to Lyndon Johnson: How to bolster public confidence and optimism in the face of a difficult mission, while still maintaining his credibility - and preparing Americans for the possibility of tougher days ahead. Adding to the challenge is the looming 2004 election, which is already showcasing heated criticism from Democratic challengers and casting Bush's words in an increasingly political context.

Historically, the balance of optimism and realism has eluded more than a few of Bush's predecessors, observers note.

"If you look back over different presidencies, particularly ones that have failed, you find that they go to an extreme," says Joe Lockhart, a former press secretary to President Clinton. At one end of the spectrum, "you have the extreme of the Nixon administration that thought they could create an alternative universe to reality, and during Vietnam just tell people things were going great.... And at the other end is, say, the Carter administration, where he wanted Americans to understand just how hard the problems were. The ones that succeed are the ones that understand that you've got to be in the middle."

The dangers of putting an overly positive spin on events became apparent this week, when Bush asserted that the spate of suicide bombings was evidence of US success on the ground - a statement that led some critics to suggest the gap between official rhetoric and reality was growing reminiscent of Vietnam.

At his news conference the next day, the president seemed to strike a more restrained note, declaring repeatedly that Iraq is a "dangerous" place, and stressing that he was "leveling" with the public.

To many, the biggest risk the president faces is losing the public trust. Critics argue that he downplayed costs and risks of the war before the conflict started - and then mismanaged public expectations again when he triumphantly declared the end of combat operations under a banner stating "Mission Accomplished."

By continuing to insist that things are going well, some argue Bush may wind up undermining his image as a straight-shooter - something that has proved a strong political asset for the president so far.

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