Democrats forge new paths in primary race

Indeed, "on the Republican side since 1980, the South Carolina primary has been a corrective for anomalous outcomes in New Hampshire," says Professor Buell.

Since Democrats will now compete in South Carolina just one week after New Hampshire, the state could take on a similar role for them. And while the Republican primary electorate in South Carolina is not necessarily all that different from the electorates in New Hampshire and Iowa, the Democratic pools are far more varied among those states - with South Carolina consisting of a substantial percentage of African-Americans. Likewise, some of the other states holding primaries alongside South Carolina - such as Arizona and New Mexico - have high numbers of Hispanic voters.

Of course, the momentum generated from a surprising performance in Iowa or New Hampshire may still hold significance - and no candidate is writing off both states. While Clark and Mr. Lieberman may be skipping Iowa, both are redirecting resources into New Hampshire. "New Hampshire is still a fairly good test of what's going to work elsewhere," says Sam Popkin, a political scientist at the University of California at San Diego. "Money pays more attention to New Hampshire and media pay more attention to New Hampshire."

But even in those states, the electorate may wind up more diversified than in years past, as campaigns are finding new ways to target potential voters and broaden the electorate. Dean in particular is "hoping to mobilize college students and others" who have not necessarily participated in the past, notes University of Iowa political scientist Peverill Squire. While these supporters may be less reliable than some of the longtime Democratic activists, such as union members, "there's reason to think he can probably [bring new people in] successfully," says Professor Squire.

Yet some experts note that while the Democratic primary electorate may be expanding, it may simultaneously wind up more fragmented, as candidates in a crowded field target niches rather than try to build broad coalitions. This effect may be exacerbated by the use of the Internet to reach voters. "You can target on a new dimension through the Internet," says Michael Cornfield, a political expert at George Washington University.

Given the competitiveness of the field, candidates may be able to win states with far smaller coalitions, which could come back to haunt the nominee in the general election. "What these candidates are doing is peeling off particular parts of the Democratic constituency," Buell says. "They're going for factions; they're not trying to build a coalition that will win the presidency, they're trying to recruit enough factions to prevail in these local contests."

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