Dynasty looks to rule strategic US ally

Citing a history of flawed elections, opposition leaders allege the voting may be rigged for Ilham. "We do not suspect, we know that the authorities are planning to falsify the ballot," Mr. Gambar says. "These are anticonstitutional intentions."

A monitoring team sent by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has documented a pattern of official abuses. "Violence persists as police intervene against rallies or tolerate violence against the opposition," says the OSCE's interim report. "Unequal treatment of the opposition persists.... Three candidates assert their lives have been threatened."

The media watchdog Reporters Without Borders also reported recently an upsurge in attacks against independent Azeri journalists trying to cover opposition activities.

The head of Azerbaijan's official Central Election Commission, Mazahir Panahov, insists the government "is committed to holding free, fair, and transparent elections."

Mr. Manakhov blames the opposition for the violence and unrest. "These incidents occurred because these candidates tried to hold meetings in areas where order couldn't be guaranteed," he says. "Local authorities are required to carry out order." As for allegations that state resources are being used to promote Ilham, Manakhov says: "We have received no information about that."

Scattered signs of opposition activity are visible in Baku, but beyond the capital, newspapers and public spaces reflect only the Ilham campaign. At the Lezgin Ahmed Public School in the town of Qusar, children file through an entrance plastered with his election posters. The school's lobby is dominated by a large board featuring photos of the Aliyevs, father and son, accompanied by a long, glorified biography of Geidar.

"Personally I don't think it's fair, as the law orders equal treatment for all candidates," says teacher Zahid Aleskander.

Experts worry that even if Ilham gets elected, he may not be able to handle Azerbaijan's problems, in particular the simmering conflict with Armenia. The five-year conflict ended in 1994 with victorious Armenians in control of their ethnic enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh as well as large swathes of Azeri territory.

"Azerbaijan has the right to free those territories by any means necessary," says Azeri Deputy Prime Minister Ali Hassanov. "Our patience is not limitless."

And, if skyrocketing global oil prices should tumble, Azerbaijan's fragile prosperity - based on difficult-to-reach Caspian oil - will collapse. "Almost all the economic good news in Azerbaijan depends on high petroleum prices," says Mr. Teperman. "If they go down, whoever is president will have huge problems."

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