Canada's conservatives shift right

At the federal level, the Liberals, who are expected to face voters next year, are keeping a watchful eye on whether the Tory's bold, new stance will strike it big at the ballot box. Last week, the reigning Liberals narrowly defeated an opposition motion in Parliament that would have stopped the government from legalizing same-sex marriage. Following Saturday's delegate selection, Finance Minister Paul Martin, who supports gay marriage, is poised to become Canada's next prime minister on Nov. 15.

Some political watchers say that the Tories have badly miscalculated voter attitudes. David Docherty, chairman of the political science department at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, says at the very least, the two parties have laid out distinct choices for voters.

"It does provide this beautiful kind of contrast," Mr. Docherty says. "But I think the Tories are running a real risk that the voters in 905 [an area code of suburban, middle-class voters who have typically supported the party's fiscal conservatism] have these social conservative values."

Docherty hasn't ruled out a Progressive Conservative minority government this time around. However, he warns that if the Tories do form the government next month, they will be beholden to this new hard right, and foster even greater culture fissures.

Ontario isn't unique with these social cleavages. According to an NFOCF Group poll, on the issue of same-sex marriage, the country is split by generation, as well as regionally. Most over 50 are opposed to same-sex marriage, while younger people support it. In French-speaking Quebec, 60 percent support same-sex marriage. However, out west in Alberta, only 20 percent want the practice to be legal.

One thing is certain: social issues appear to be galvanizing voters in the heart of the Tory's traditional stronghold. George Finn, a 53-year-old resident of Mississauga, a Toronto suburb, says he will vote for a Conservative candidate this time around because of his stand on same-sex marriage. "I am a Liberal,'' Mr. Finn explains. "But same-sex marriage is wrong.... It is the only issue that matters to me in this election.''

Meanwhile, Alisa Exelby, 21, says she feels compelled to voice her opinion. "I feel so strongly about same-sex marriage that I'm going to vote for the first time in my life,'' says Ms. Exelby. ''And I can tell you, I won't be voting for the Progressive Conservative Party."

Still, some observers say that despite the flap being made over loosening laws on marijuana use and gay marriage, this election will come down to pocketbook issues. Long-time Progressive Conservative Hugh Segal says that Ontario voters are more concerned about maintaining their vaunted social safety net.

"I think this could be a watershed election, in that it will determine whether the movement to cut taxes is going to continue in the mainstream," Mr. Segal says. "If the Tories should lose here, I think that means there probably has to be a modernization of their message. That there needs to be a better balance between the public and private sectors."

Page: 1 | 2