Ripples of a recall delay

Whatever happens next in California's recall, the United States Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals dealt a severe blow to any Republican hope of claiming the governor's office.

From the beginning, pro- recall forces had hoped to avoid a March election, fearing that the recall's energy might dissipate during an eight-month campaign. Yet that date looks increasingly likely with the court's Monday decision to bar California from holding any election until punch-card ballots are eliminated.

What's more, even if the ruling is overturned, it will have given Democrats something they have so far largely lacked: a rallying cry. They have long sought to connect the recall to what they see as Republican ploys to undermine fair elections - particularly the 2000 presidential race. Should the United States Supreme Court again intervene, the dots might prove easier to connect.

At most, it could prove a galvanizing issue for left-leaning voters in an election that many analysts believe will be decided by turnout. At least, it will make the jobs of those looking to oust Gov. Gray Davis much more difficult.

"This election has always been about anger," says Jack Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College in southern California. "Either way, the anger factor now favors [Governor] Davis."

In the prism of possibilities presented in this oddest of elections, Monday's shift was among the most surprising. Overturning a lower court's ruling, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco decided that the punch-card ballots used by six of California's most populous counties are "so flawed ... that 40,000 voters who travel to the polls ... will not have their vote counted."

These are the same machines that led to "hanging chads" and the 2000 presidential election's Florida recount. They are the same machines that California agreed to phase out by next March, citing concerns that the same sorts of errors and confusion could happen here.

The ninth Circuit Court cited that state mandate, as well as the US Supreme Court's decision in resolving the 2000 recount that "using different standards for counting votes in different counties" is unconstitutional. Arguing that voters in the six punch-card counties - which include as many as 40 percent of the state's voters - would unfairly be prone to having their votes tossed out, the court prohibits California from holding a statewide election until the new systems are operational.

For the defendants, one option is to appeal to the full Ninth Circuit; Monday's decision was made by a panel of only three of the judges. Another is to appeal directly to the Supreme Court. At press time, California's secretary of state, Kevin Shelley, was expected to decide whether he would appeal the ruling with the appeals court or go directly to the Supreme Court.

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