Got skills?

But barring such dramatic events, closing the skills gap will require a combination of educational gains, more immigration, increased productivity, and higher participation in the workforce, the EPF report concludes.

Everyone's standard of living is on the line. One measure is the growth in per capita personal income (all income divided by the total population). Currently it's about $31,000. By 2033, that could double to $63,000 after adjusting for inflation, the EPF forecasts. But if a labor and skills gap persists, it might reach only $50,000.

A call for more immigration may raise eyebrows, because this period of higher unemployment has caused resentment to rise. But to say that immigrants are "taking jobs" is misleading, Dr. Zey says. "We're not filling them."

At the same time, he says, it's important to change cultural attitudes in the US that discourage people from learning math and technical skills - areas in which firms have sought special visas for foreign employees. "You have to correct the system, not just go for a global brain drain," Zey says.

To attract and retain workers and develop their skills, experts say firms will probably turn to a range of solutions including more on-the-job training and mentoring, better child-care assistance, a return to incentives such as signing bonuses, and more openness to hiring people with disabilities.

In the late 1980s, with companies like Fowler's clamoring for better- educated workers, representatives of local government, businesses, and schools formed the Holyoke Employment Partnership. It's facilitated by the city's Chamber of Commerce and has been cited as a national model.

"I've been in this business for 25 years, and I have never seen this level of collaboration," says David Gadaire, director of CareerPoint, a career- development center set up by the HEP.

In addition to helping match people up with jobs and adult education, the center runs programs with business partners to improve workers' or applicants' skills. Fowler's company and other factories, for instance, developed a curriculum known as Manufacturing 101. Most participants went on to work successfully in those companies, Mr. Gadaire says. The HEP has also developed ways for healthcare workers to advance in their careers, which should reduce turnover in the many local hospitals and nursing homes.

Because of these collaborations, Gadaire says, "we give the companies and the workers here in Holyoke a fighting chance."

Still, preparing the workforce of tomorrow often comes down to individuals doing what it takes to make the transition. Consider Carole Barnaby, a Holyoke native who worked at an A&P grocery store for 32 years before losing her job when the store was bought out in April. Now, she's familiarizing herself with Microsoft Windows, thanks to CareerPoint's computer lab, and preparing to start an office-assistant course at Holyoke Community College."Without this schooling, I'd have to stay at a level I don't want to be at," she says. "I want to progress to something - probably management."

Up to half of American employees are ready to pounce on better job opportunities if they come along in the next two years. The average replacement cost for each: $50,000.

If 30 percent of Americans act on that desire for change, employers could face collective turnover costs of $590 billion, according to Spherion, a recruiting and outsourcing company in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4