Iraq enters a tense new phase

The three-day funeral for one of Iraq's most venerated Shiite Muslim clerics comes to a climax today in the holy city of Najaf. But even before the sea of tearful mourners ebbs, Iraqi leaders and US administrators face a critical juncture in their nation-building strategy.

For Iraqis, more than the UN headquarters bombing the previous week, the powerful blast that killed Ayatollah Mohammed Bakir al-Hakim and some 80others last Friday shattered any sense of progress toward stability.

It deepened cleavages between factions of the Muslim Shiite majority as well as the Sunni minority, confirmed a pattern of car bombings, and underscored the challenges still preventing the US from instilling peace.

"Somebody seems to be pushing all the right buttons to wreck the American political strategy," says Tim Ripley at the Centre for Defence and International Security Studies at Britain's Lancaster University. "This doesn't seem like postwar chaos; it's someone reading the agenda [who] wants to derail it."

The chief US administrator for Iraq, Paul Bremer, is to meet with US military chiefs in Baghdad this week to reassess American security plans. Options under consideration range from more US troops, a UN deal for more international soldiers, or the creation of Iraqi paramilitary forces. But analysts say it's not clear that either the American and Iraqi publics will wait for these options to come to fruition.

In Najaf, because of the bombing, US Marines are delaying the handover of control of this area of southern Iraq to a Polish-led international force that was supposed to take place tomorrow.

Tens of thousands of Shiite mourners, escorted by armed guards, wailed and beat their chests as they marched south from Baghdad Sunday toward Najaf with Hakim's casket. The mourners gave voice to the crosscurrents of strategic options and emotions. Some called for a stronger US presence to go after loyalists of Saddam Hussein's regime - widely believed responsible for Friday's blast - while others claimed that only Mr. Hussein's iron hand could reestablish order.

Also of concern to many Shiites here is the possible role of Sunni militants from outside Iraq (reported to be arriving in increasing numbers) bent on destabilizing the US occupation. The FBI team investigating the UN blast is looking at possible links between the two bombings.

Few Iraqis blamed their fellow Shiites of a rival faction led by Moqtada al-Sadr, which has vociferously opposed the US presence in Iraq, saying that no Shiite would ever bomb the Imam Ali Mosque, the holiest Shiite shrine.

Public confusion over the proper response grew yesterday when the Arabic television station Al Jazeera broadcast an audiotape, purporting to be from Hussein, in which the fugitive dictator denied responsibility for the blast.

"They rushed to accuse before investigating," said the voice on the tape. "They did that to divert attention from the real culprits."

While many Shiite leaders called for calm and unity, they also blamed American forces for not doing enough to secure Iraq and its holy sites - or to let Iraqis secure themselves.

"[The bombers] are dividing all the Iraqi people," said Mohamed Kadhim, a driver who favors a tougher US response, as he sank into the flag-waving mourners. "They want us to kill each other - but we know that. We will catch all the bad people. We ask the Americans to let us have our arms and do all that is good."

Hakim's brother Abdulaziz, a member of the US-appointed Iraq Governing Council, said America should "reconsider its policy," after ignoring Shiite warnings about instability inspired by the former regime.

The death of Hakim was a particular loss for the US. Despite 23 years living in exile in Iran, the black-turbaned cleric had reluctantly agreed to cooperate with American plans for governing Iraq - if only to bring a swifter end to the US occupation.

He also was a tenuous but important link between Washington and Tehran, at a difficult juncture in US-Iran relations.

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