Colombia's leftist rebels unite

Just as momentum is building for President Alvaro Uribe's push to end Colombia's four-decade civil war, the country's two main leftist rebel groups have renewed their efforts to stop him.

The 17,000-member Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the 5,000-member National Liberation Army (ELN) publicly declared on Monday that they had joined forces in their war against the government. Until the declaration, the ELN was thought to be amenable to a possible peace deal.

The declaration comes at a time when Mr. Uribe is engaged in peace talks with right-wing paramilitaries and has proposed granting alternative penalties for drug traffickers and members of illegal armed groups. Some 70 percent of the public backs the hard-line president, who just ended his first year in office.

But while the groups are trying to gain the upper hand against the government, defense analysts are divided on whether this will significantly alter the balance of power in the 39-year conflict.

Leon Valencia, a former ELN commander turned political analyst, says the alliance is serious and will give "new air to the armed conflict." He views the alliance as "very worrisome for the country."

"The ELN will contribute to the FARC a long tradition of urban operational experience and perhaps a political vision that is more agile and of greater vision," Valencia said in an e-mail from Uruguay, where he is now living. "The FARC will impose on the ELN greater military goals, and if the alliance is solid, contribute economic resources that could revitalize the ELN."

Valencia argues that the conflict will "intensify" as a result of the alliance and "this will ensure that the end of Uribe's tenure won't be rose colored."

In contrast, Alfredo Rangel, a defense analyst who runs a security think tank here, says that the course of the war is unlikely to change much. He says the two groups have already been working together in several regions.

"There is an intention to widen the cooperation," Mr. Rangel says. "The ELN may receive [a boost], but I don't think that changes the situation."

Since Uribe came to office last August, he has taken the fight to Colombia's rebel groups, increasing military spending, authorizing new war taxes, and creating an army of peasant soldiers. He has also initiated peace talks with the right-wing United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia in an effort to demobilize some 20,000 troops by the end of 2005. The government has even tried unsuccessfully to advance peace negotiations with the ELN.

Additionally, just last week Uribe proposed granting "conditional liberty" to drug traffickers and rebels, right- or left-wing, who have committed crimes against humanity. Instead of going to jail, low-level offenders would pay alternative penalties such as prohibition from serving in office and carrying firearms.

But the two leftist groups have rejected any kind of peace deal with the Uribe government. Perhaps trying to grab the public-relations image edge back from Uribe, who has succeeded in getting the international community to condemn the FARC as terrorists, the rebels released a six-point communiqué on Monday that condemns Uribe's "democratic security" policies.

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