Taiwanese tilt toward pro-China parties
Elections are still seven months away, but economic woes erode president's support.
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Taiwan is claimed by Beijing as part of China's sovereign homeland. Beijing has threatened war should Taiwan declare independence. The island sits astride a key shipping lane between South Asia and North Asia, and Beijing also claims much of the South China Sea, down to Indonesia.
The clash dates to the civil war in China. The nationalist forces of Chiang Kai-shek fled in 1949 to what was then called Formosa, bringing much of the imperial treasure with them. They took over in a quick and bloody purge, and ruled as autocrats. Chiang hoped to retake the mainland, and only in the 90s did the dream died out.
The KMT's martial law ended in 1987, and a multiparty system emerged as part of a "Taiwanese identity" movement. The losers were old guard KMT, mostly mainlanders. The DPP, legalized in 1989, is a "big tent" of many groups, including women, antinuclear activists, aborigines, Christians, and ethnic Taiwanese - who argue they were always excluded, despite being a majority.
Taiwan is not a creation of the nationalists, nor a vassal state of China, say the "new guard." They claim a separate identity, history, language, and culture. National pride swelled as Taiwan became the world's leading exporter of semiconductors.
In the 2000 elections, Beijing's thundering threats of war if the vote went to a pro-independence party, helped Chen and the DPP.
Next March, however, Chen may face elections without a bellicose China to anger voters. Beijing has embarked on a "soft offensive" strategy that emphasizes quieter tones and less military finger wagging.
"China thinks it has time on its side," says one leading academic here.
The election may be a benchmark for Beijing, too, analysts say - determining whether China's rulers will have to take Chen and his party seriously.
Chen does have some issues. During the SARS crisis, dismay with China was heightened when Beijing insisted upon controlling the access of World Health Organization visits here.
There is also Hong Kong. China has promised Taiwan even greater autonomy than Hong Kong has if it unifies. But huge street protests in Hong Kong over Beijing's unwanted influence in managing the former British colony is grist for DPP political mills.
Mostly, the DPP needs to nurture the economy, experts say. The legislature just passed a $2.2 billion stimulus package. It also has some new levers to attract international capital flow via the Morgan Stanley index.
"The DPP is not the cause of the economic downturn.... The global economy has been the problem," says a top economist here who requested anonymity. "Chen is called obstructionist for not allowing access to China. That's nonsense. Investment, trade, and faster growth with China are booming. It is an economic phenomenon, and you can't stop it. It is happening without anyone making a policy.
"What's needed is eight years, not four years, to adjust," he argues. "The KMT had 50 years."
Chan, the Presbyterian IT professional, is dubious. "The DPP doesn't need four more years. What Taiwan needs is four more years without the KMT."
