Iraq blast fits pattern of sabotage

Blowing up the UN, as well as blowing up oil pipelines and water mains, can only make the ordinary life of Iraqis more miserable. Thus it seems obvious that the campaign of destruction aims to create chaos and deliberately harm the ability of the United States to administer Iraq.

"This could be very devastating to [US] efforts," says Judith Yaphe, an Iraq expert at the National Defense University.

It's possible that the attack was carried out by remnants of the Hussein regime, says Ms. Yaphe. Some of Mr. Hussein's elite forces, such as the Special Republican Guard, received training in car bombs and other means of sabotage.

But the smoothness of the planning and the clever choice of unexpected targets points to a more experienced kind of terrorist organization, according to Yaphe. That might mean jihadis crossing from Syria or Iran.

"I can believe there are all kinds of forces coming to play here," she says.

A US attack last month on an alleged terrorist training camp in the desert west of Baghdad killed 70 foreign fighters. They included Saudis, Yemenis, Afghans, and Sudanese, according to news reports.

A statement purportedly from Al Qaeda broadcast Aug. 18 on Arab satellite television asserted that the recent spate of attacks in Iraq was indeed the work of such jihadis.

Whatever the nature of the opposition, it is clearly adjusting, adapting, and searching out targets that have not yet been protected.

That makes life more difficult for US administrators on a number of levels. More troops might have to be dispatched for the guarding of pipelines and other infrastructure, for instance - stretching an already thin force.

Pressure to send yet more soldiers to Iraq might increase. On Tuesday, Sen. John McCain (R) of Arizona said publicly, "I think they need more people."

Mr. McCain did not specify how many additional troops he thought were necessary. Current US end strength in Iraq is about 140,000.

At the same time, nations that the US is attempting to persuade to join the occupation effort may become more reluctant to get involved. India, Pakistan, and other such countries might be wary about sending their units into a clearly hostile country.

"Most have wanted to avoid this for obvious reasons, and this is going to make it [easier for them to do so]," says Jim Walsh, an international security expert at Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government.

The real target of the blast was not so much the UN as the Iraqi people at large, according to Mr. Walsh. Without their confidence, the US occupation of Iraq won't succeed in building a stable nation.

"It's hard to get [the insurgents] unless the average Iraqi has faith and ... a sense of security and sees their future best hope is for a successful reconstruction," says Walsh.

But a simmering summer with poor electrical service and 60 percent unemployment has already hammered Iraqi morale. US military tactics that seem as occasionally heavy-handed may only become more so as the search for Hussein adherents and terrorists intensifies.

Both the Shiite and Sunni Muslim religious establishments have taken umbrage at recent US actions, say other experts. The establishment of an Iraqi governing council may have been a step in the right direction, but, like US administrators, the Iraqi leaders have to operate from behind barbed wire and a guard of US guns.

"I don't think we are poised to break out of this very quickly," says the former intelligence officer with expertise in the region.

• Cameron Barr contributed from Baghdad.

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