Why recall vote may hinge on party unity

"The state really has two Republican parties," says Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll. The moderate wing holds more voters, but much of the organization is on the conservative side, he says, resulting in a series of right-wing nominees who have gone on to lose in the general election - as in 2002, when Mr. Simon beat former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan in the primary, only to lose to Davis.

The recall election has no primary, but with several GOP candidates on the ballot, it may wind up functioning as a primary and general election all in one, with conservatives taking just enough votes away from Schwarzenegger to keep him from winning overall.

Indeed, the latest polls underscore the difficulties the actor faces in trying to pull together a winning coalition. The most recent Field Poll finds Schwarzenegger trailing Bustamante, 25 to 22 percent. But an additional 22 percent of voters are split among the other Republican candidates: Mr. McClintock received 9 percent, Simon 8 percent, and Mr. Ueberroth 5 percent. If all those voters simply switched to support Schwarzenegger instead - and none of his current supporters abandoned him - he would win handily.

But by appealing more overtly to conservatives, the actor would almost certainly limit his ability to reach out to Democratic and independent voters - a group he also needs, and seems intent on courting, with recent moves to add prominent Democrats such as investor Warren Buffett and actor Rob Lowe to his campaign team.

"The more visible Democrats he can put onto his advisory committee, the more appealing he will be to independent and Democratic voters. But the more he puts those guys on, the more the conservatives will likely stick with their candidates," says Professor Cain.

To some extent, the Democrats could face a similar problem on the left, with columnist Arianna Huffington and Green Party candidate Peter Camejo potentially siphoning liberal support from Bustamante. But the effect is less significant, because those candidates are drawing a smaller percentage of the vote: In the Field poll, Ms. Huffington received 4 percent while Mr. Camejo was at 2 percent.

The differences between the center- and left-leaning candidates may also be less severe, making it easier for them to coalesce behind a single contender.

By contrast, Schwarzenegger's stances on a number hot-button social issues - from abortion to gay rights to gun control - are sharply at odds with right-wing orthodoxy. "It's hard to coalesce around a candidate when a certain part of the party has such strong views," says Mr. DiCamillo.

Some Republican leaders have lately hinted that the party's best hope might be to simply pressure other candidates to drop out - essentially making Schwarzenegger the only choice for Republican voters.

But in a party that's spent years in disarray, most observers don't see that as likely, either.

"There's no Republican in California strong enough to crack any type of whip," says Allan Hoffenblum, a GOP strategist. "If there's going to be a consolidation [of candidates], that's going to be a decision made purely by Bill Simon, Tom McClintock, and their people."

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