Dangerous brinksmanship heats up the Levant

But Israel insists that the overflights are necessary for reconnaissance purposes, and that Hizbullah's antiaircraft fire is an unprovoked aggression. Neither side so far has shown willingness to be the first to step down.

"If we allow the cycle to become a spiral, we could end up potentially with a creeping conflict along the Blue Line [the UN-monitored border between Israel and Lebanon] and nobody should want to see that," says Staffan de Mistura, the Beirut-based UN official for southern Lebanon.

Other than routine anti- aircraft fire and overflights, the Lebanon-Israel border has been calm for seven months, in part due to regional uncertainties generated by the war in Iraq.

The latest flare-up appears to have been spurred partly by Syrian irritation with the United States. Stability along the Lebanon-Israel border is linked to the interests of Syria, the dominant power broker in Lebanon. Syria views Hizbullah as a useful tool to maintain pressure on Israel for the return of the Golan Heights, the strategic plateau captured by the Jewish state in 1967. So long as the Golan remains in Israeli hands, Syria will not allow Israel the luxury of guaranteed security along its northern border with Lebanon.

The US has placed intense pressure on Syria to cease its support for Hizbullah. But Syria has refused to yield to what it sees as Israeli-inspired dictates from Washington. At the end of July, Syrian Foreign Minister Farouq al-Sharaa slammed the administration of President Bush, saying it was unmatched in "foolishness and tendency towards violence."

That same day, Hizbullah Secretary-General Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah threatened to kidnap more Israeli soldiers.

On Aug. 2, Ali Saleh, a senior commander in the Islamic Resistance, Hizbullah's armed wing, was killed in a car bomb blast in the southern suburbs of Beirut, the group's stronghold. There was no claim of responsibility, but Hizbullah blamed Israel and vowed revenge.

Some analysts believe that Saleh was killed to provoke a response from Hizbullah.

"The Israelis realize that after seven months without attacks along the border, it becomes hard to keep claiming that Hizbullah is a threat. They had to heat up the border," Mr Young claims.

Although a tense calm has returned to the area, UN peacekeepers are privately worried that the Aug. 10 air strike against the Hizbullah position will be repeated if the group continues to fire antiaircraft rounds across the border in retaliation for Israeli overflights.

The Americans are seeking to persuade Israel to abandon its overflights for a month to prove one way or the other if they are connected to Hizbullah's cross-border antiaircraft fire. If the antiaircraft fire halts as expected, then Israel will have difficulty arguing for a resumption of overflights, a diplomat says.

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