California recall recast

Arnold Schwarzenegger has lobbed a grenade into the political circus tent of California Gov. Gray Davis's recall election.

Within hours of the Austrian-born movie star's surprise announcement that he will run for governor, the shaky Democratic unity behind Governor Davis had shattered, dramatically cutting his chances of survival. Davis's own lieutenant governor, Cruz Bustamante, announced his candidacy late Wednesday, and other big-name California Democrats may follow suit.

"It's the nightmare scenario: The presence of Democrats on the replacement ballot makes it safe to vote for the recall," says John Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College. "More than one Democrat means it's more likely Schwarzenegger wins."

The Terminator brings muscle to the table: Besides near-universal name recognition and a personal fortune he says he'll tap, he is considered a moderate in a state where conservatives haven't fared well. While his minimal political experience and celebrity may be a negative to older voters, they may be a plus for the voters who are now likely to be drawn to the recall election on Oct. 7.

"Arnold Schwarzenegger will bring out a whole echelon of people who don't vote but who go to movies," says Tony Quinn, a longtime political analyst. "Because of his movie background and larger-than-life persona, he will suck the oxygen away from the other Republican candidates, and Democrats as well - because when you listen to him, he sounds like one."

Like a past California actor-governor, Ronald Reagan, Schwarzenegger seems undaunted by the real-life role of leading the nation's most populous state and the world's fifth-largest economy.

"At the same time he had been pumping up sales in his 'Terminator' movie, he was pumping up interest in his candidacy and has peaked major interest right at the moment of his opponent's greatest weakness," says Alan Heslop, former director of the Rose Institute of Government.

Outwardly, Democrats are relishing the thought of taking on Schwarzenegger because they can easily make fun of his Hollywood past, lack of experience, and affluent lifestyle. But the entry of more Democrats into the race can only be bad for the party. Besides the lieutenant governor, state Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi may jump in. Other announcements are expected before the Saturday deadline.

"There are things we like about taking on Schwarzenegger ... which is that now we can sit back and let the tabloids take over," says Bob Mulholland, campaign adviser for the California Democratic Party. "With someone like him in the race, the tabloids are in a feeding frenzy and the rules are different. In fact, there are no rules."

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