First fight of 2004 election - California recall

The first test of the 2004 campaign may take place not in Iowa or New Hampshire, but in a state where dramas of democracy are typically confined to the set of "The West Wing."

If California's secretary of state certifies a GOP-driven effort to recall Democratic Gov. Gray Davis - a move that could happen as soon as Wednesday - it will set the stage for an unusual special election in the Golden State some time this fall.

It will also catapult California to the center of the nation's political universe. At stake is not only leadership of the nation's largest state, but also the course of California politics - and, potentially, its 55 electoral votes.

At the very least, the recall battle - already star-studded with potential candidates from Arnold Schwarzenegger to Arianna Huffington - seems likely to temporarily overshadow the 2004 presidential campaign, making it harder for Democratic White House hopefuls to raise money or get their message out.

But it could have a far greater impact. Although California has been a reliably Democratic state for the past decade, a successful recall campaign could launch the beginnings of a genuine Republican revival - laying the groundwork for more competitive Senate and presidential campaigns in the state in 2004 and beyond.

On the other hand, if the effort backfires, it could deliver a devastating blow to a party already struggling with statewide decline.

To many Republicans, it's a risk worth taking. Right now, "California does not fit into the 270 for Republicans," says Sal Russo, a GOP strategist working on the recall effort, referring to the number of electoral votes a presidential candidate must win overall. "But if we get a Republican governor who can build the political infrastructure, then the dynamics change."

Certainly, most analysts agree, President Bush would face a steep uphill climb to win California outright in 2004, given the state's overall liberal tilt.

During the 2000 campaign, Mr. Bush spent a significant amount of time and money campaigning in California - only to lose it to Al Gore by 12 points. And while, as an incumbent, he would probably have a better shot this time around, the latest Field Poll shows Bush's approval rating among Californians has sunk to its lowest level since before the attacks of 9/11, with just 49 percent of state residents approving of the president's performance.

Still, Bush's expected fundraising advantage over his eventual Democratic opponent may give him more leeway to compete in the Golden State. And if Republicans gain any momentum there as a result of the recall, it could force Democrats to spend significant resources to defend their hold on the state.

Already, California's recall effort seems likely to work to the president's advantage in a number of indirect ways.

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