In Iraq, Shiites are wild card

Two hours before the Iraqi Shiite cleric was to speak, the faithful were already staking out space in the mosque courtyard. Mortada Abbas Sabih laid down a plastic-sacking prayer mat on the baking sand, and hid from the sun beneath a black umbrella, to await political enlightenment.

Every Friday, Mr. Sabih journeys 15 miles to hear a very political sermon at the gold-domed Kufa Mosque. He hears Muqtada al-Sadr, one of the most outspoken anti-American clerics in Iraq, talk about ways to end the US occupation, and the need to turn Iraq into an Islamic state.

Last Friday, Mr. Sadr gave a particularly fiery sermon, announcing that he was recruiting a private army and blasting Iraq's new US-backed governing council. "If you ignore the governing council, you'll be restoring good to your country," he said, according to the Associated Press.

Sadr supporters say the US sent troops to surround his house the next day, according to the AP. The response was angry and immediate; Sadr's followers staged a large demonstration in Baghdad on Saturday, and that more than 10,000 angry Shiites took to the streets of Najaf Sunday in protest. For many Shiites, Sadr articulates a frustration with the American presence in postwar Iraq.

"I don't think America would want to be occupied by Iraqis," Sabih said at a sermon on July 11. "We receive orders from the Hawza [religious scholars]. When they say we should be martyrs, we will. But we are waiting now to see what will be."

The question of what will be is creating a duel between mullahs in Iraq and dividing the Shiite community, which makes up more than 60 percent of the population. While there are signs that more moderate views are prevailing - with key Shiite leaders engaging in the new US-created governing process - the collapse of Saddam Hussein has unleashed a swirling free-for-all of religion and politics.

The results of this Shiite debate matter to US forces, which come under attack up to 25 times each day across Iraq. Most assailants, US and British officials say, are diehard Sunni Muslim Hussein loyalists.

But any concerted anti-US military push by the majority Shiites could unravel the occupation. Conversely, the Shiites can play a critical role in stabilizing Iraq, if they embrace US reconstruction and governance plans.

Two Fridays ago, sweat dripping down his face from the rim of his black turban, Mr. Sadr addressed thousands of rapt believers with a dour glower and little charisma.

He is young man of low religious rank, but draws his following from those who remember his father, Ayatollah Mohamed Sadiq al-Sadr, one of the most respected clerics in Iraq, who was killed by the regime in 1999.

Sadr the younger called for Iraqis to unite to form an "Islamic nation," for loyalists of the previous regime to "change themselves" and beg forgiveness, and for a Iraq-only political process.

"Many people at the time of Saddam were afraid to express their opinions, and had to lie," Sadr said. "So why are they afraid now, and of whom?"

In a brief interview afterwards, Sadr said that "nobody is optimistic with the Americans," and he dismissed suggestions of division in Shiite ranks.

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