He's been openly campaigning longer than any other Democrat, and he has practically taken up residence in Iowa and New Hampshire. So when former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean announces Monday that he is running for president he is, on one level, stating the obvious.

But Dr. Dean's announcement - delivered one week before the end of the second fundraising period, and one day before a key online primary by a left-wing group - also conveys a pointed message: Don't underestimate his campaign.

Currently in second place in New Hampshire, and tied for second in Iowa, Dean has been drawing bigger crowds than most competitors. At cattle calls and conventions, his fiery rhetoric routinely sparks standing ovations among liberal activists, and he recently won an unofficial poll at the Wisconsin Democratic convention.

Like Sen. John McCain in 2000, Dean is using the Internet to amass a network of supporters - more than 12,000 will gather across the country for Monday's announcement. He's also relying on conventional, if equally aggressive, tactics: Last week, he became the first candidate to go on air, running a TV ad in Iowa.

Of course, nearly every presidential cycle has an insurgent, and Dean may be the latest in a long line of dark horses who generate enthusiasm on the trail, but, without significant money or mainstream backing, fail to win the nomination. Dean's rivals predict he won't sustain his momentum through the fall, when other candidates begin advertising and voters start paying attention.

Still, insurgent campaigns can take off - as in 1976, when a little-known former Georgia governor named Jimmy Carter won the White House. The Dean camp believes 2004 may be one of those rare moments when widespread distrust of Washington insiders - combined with the organizing potential of the Internet - might propel an outsider to victory.

"This is the first great grassroots campaign of the modern era," Dean's campaign manager, Joe Trippi, asserted in a recent call with reporters. The key, he says, "is to make sure everyone understands that this is real."

The factor with the greatest potential to fuel Dean's campaign may be Iraq. Certainly, much of Dean's momentum has come from his opposition to the war. In the runup to the US invasion, his outspoken antiwar stance won him media attention and many liberal activists' support. More recently, the failure to find weapons of mass destruction, and US troops' difficulties in securing the peace have brought more debate - and ammunition.

To some extent, Dean's stance has polarized his party. Centrists have attacked him: This spring, the Democratic Leadership Council warned that he represented "the McGovern-Mondale wing [of the party], defined ... by weakness abroad and elitist, interest-group liberalism at home." But other aspects of his candidacy don't fit the liberal mold: He supports a balanced budget and takes a states' rights position on gun control, spurring some liberal attacks.

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