In Russia, a 'creeping coup'?

An unlikely coalition of liberal and communist legislators is set to launch a no-confidence vote against the Kremlin-appointed government of Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov Wednesday. It is the first twitch of parliamentary rebellion since President Vladimir Putin came to office more than three years ago.

Most experts say the no-confidence measure, which the state Duma's pro-Kremlin majority is expected to reject, is just the first shot in a fast-approaching election campaign and is aimed at gaining cheap points for the two main opposition parties, the Communists and the liberal Yabloko group. Between them, the two control about a quarter of the Duma's 450 seats.

"This is a perfectly normal political game," says Vyacheslav Nikonov, director of the independent Politika think tank in Moscow. "The opposition wants the country to notice them, and they'll probably get their wish."

But there is a darker view. A group of leading experts suggests that the parliamentary challenge is a prelude to a move by Russia's rich and powerful "oligarchs" to unseat Mr. Putin and install a government more friendly to big business.

"The country is on the verge of a creeping oligarchic coup," warns a report issued by the nongovernmental Council for National Strategy (CNS) and signed by 23 well-known experts from across the political spectrum. Issued last week, it argues that: "either the oligarchs will try to remove Vladimir Putin from power in the near future, or the regime, in the person of Putin, will begin to squeeze the oligarchs again, using all the repressive power of government."

About a dozen megatycoons control an estimated 70 percent of Russia's economy. While most grew rich through banking and ownership of Russia's vast natural resources, they have since branched out, investing in telecommunications, manufacturing, and media.

The CNS report says the tycoons are chafing under Russia's strong presidential system - in which a Kremlin-appointed government decides all economic policy - and would like to install an all-powerful parliament in its place.

"The oligarchs have great power and resources, but no legitimacy," says Sergei Markov, head of the Kremlin-connected Center for Political Studies and one of the CNS report's authors. "They fear Putin's vast authority, because he could easily destroy them. What they want is a strong parliament, because in the context of our very weak society such a body could be easily controlled through lobbying and corruption."

Winston Churchill once remarked that observing Russian politics was "like watching two dogs fighting under a carpet." In his recent state-of-the-nation address, Mr. Putin appeared to be making a concession to an unrevealed enemy, saying that, after the next elections, he might accept a government made up of winning parliamentary parties rather than Kremlin appointees.

Russia will hold parliamentary elections in December, followed by a presidential vote in March 2004. Though Putin's approval rating hovers around 70 percent, the pro-Kremlin United Russia Party has been plummeting in the polls. According to a June survey by the independent Public Opinion Foundation, 23 percent of Russians said they would vote for the Communists, followed by 21 percent for United Russia. Six percent favored Yabloko.

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