Path to civilian rule eludes Burma

As Suu Kyi's popularity increased, so did harassment from the regime. Thugs were sent to disrupt her rallies by menacing onlookers and blasting loud music to drown out her speeches. But the crowds kept coming. The last NLD rally held in Monywa, a day before the fateful night drive, drew tens of thousands of supporters for a 20-minute address by Suu Kyi and caused three-hour tailbacks on the road from Mandalay.

The next day, the regime struck back. According to state media, what happened on the road from Monywa was a spontaneous clash between pro- and antigovernment forces, an example of the chaos wrought by democracy activists, or "internal destructive elements."

But local residents have a different story to tell. They say it was a preplanned attack staged by government forces that press-ganged villagers to fight, without telling them for what cause, and brought convicts to nearby houses where they were plied with alcohol before the attack. Opposition sources that spoke to eyewitnesses say that trucks were driven onto the road to cut off the rear of the convoy and that soldiers shot and killed students and monks from Monywa who tried to reach the scene.

US officials reached a similar conclusion last week when they visited the scene. A team from the US Embassy in Rangoon retrieved bloody clothing, weapons, and broken glass from what the State Department has since called a "premeditated ambush" by "government-affiliated thugs."

Secretary of State Colin Powell is likely to press Burma for answers at a regional meeting of foreign ministers in Cambodia next week. Diplomats say the strike against Suu Kyi is a rude awakening for Western countries that thought the junta had turned over a new leaf when it released her in 2002. "We've tried the carrot and now this: a reality check. The US and Europe are really fed up," says a Western diplomat.

But any hopes of concerted international pressure on the regime will be dented by the reluctance of many Asian countries to reprimand the junta. Diplomats say Burma is confident that China and Japan, as well as trading partners in Southeast Asia, won't join any campaign to squeeze the regime.

Even a proposed ban on US imports of Burmese textiles, worth about $350 million a year, can only exert so much effort, say analysts.

"The military doesn't care unless there is real pressure, and I don't think that pressure is forthcoming from the European Union, let alone ASEAN," says Ms. Naing Oo, referring to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

In Burma, where few are brave enough to speak out and risk the regime's wrath, public reaction has so far been understandably muted. In private, though, Burmese express frustration with the military's decaying grip on a nation and the harsh treatment meted out to the woman known simply as "The Lady."

"She's here in our hearts, but this is a setback for us. It may be another five or 10 years before my country can get better," says a schoolteacher.

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