US weighs a tougher Iran stance
The White House is increasingly citing Iran as key source of instability in region.
Ever since President Bush pronounced Iran a member of an "axis of evil" early last year, US policy towards the regime in Tehran has been an odd mix of antagonism and engagement - both half-hearted.
Now flush from the military victory in Iraq and anxious to press for broad change in the Middle East, the Bush administration appears ready to choose a more defined course - and it's likely to be a tougher line. Experts say the new approach toward a nation the US sees as a key source of instability and terrorist activity in the region might even involve covert or overt pursuit of regime change.
Since Sept. 11, "we've held to a middle ground," says Flynt Leverett, who until March was the senior director for Middle East affairs in the National Security Council. "But now important people in the administration are pushing the regime change option."
High-level administration officials are expected to meet Thursday to begin formulating a clearer policy towards Iran. Another meeting set for earlier in the week involving lower-level officials was replaced when it was decided a decision was going to require high-level participation, sources close to planning for the inter-agency meeting said.
A more muscular approach to Iran - perhaps including support for internal resistance groups that at least in one case have been included on the State Department's list of terrorist organizations - is expected to prevail because of strong support from the Pentagon and some members of the NSC. The State Department prefers dialogue, sources say.
On the nuclear issue, evidence is accumulating that Iran is building a string of uranium-enrichment facilities, a move that if proven would suggest Iran is seeking to build nuclear weapons - in violation of its signing of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
On Tuesday, an Iranian opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), reported at a Washington press conference the existence of two previously undisclosed uranium enrichment facilities. The group, whose past revelations have largely proven credible, says the two facilities west of Tehran suggest the Iranian regime is seeking to protect a weapons program from foreign military targeting by dispersing operations.
"This revelation proves the [Iranian] regime has a deceptive but very well-thought-out program for developing nuclear weapons," says Ali Safavi, a member of the NCRI's foreign-affairs committee.
One factor that might explain an accelerated nuclear program is the Iranian regime's desire to avoid Saddam Hussein's fate, some analysts say. Even as US policy towards Iran hardens, the Iranian regime is taking its cue from the way its two fellow members of the Bush "axis of evil" list have fared since the president's pronouncement in his State of the Union address 16 months ago.
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