SE Asia tries 'shock and awe'

As a reward for her early and steadfast support of the US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, Ms. Arroyo was invited to Washington this weekend; she met with President Bush at the White House Monday. US military aid and training was extended to the Philippines for the first time in a decade last year, with US combat troops providing training to Filipino forces fighting the Abu Sayyaf, a Muslim terrorist group.

Before leaving Manila, Arroyo suspended peace talks and then ordered air and artillery attacks against MILF positions on Mindanao, describing the offensive as an effort to root out "terrorist cells." The Armed Forces of the Philippines estimate 50 rebels were killed in the attacks over the weekend. Filipino officials are lobbying the US to consider naming the MILF an international terrorist group.

In Aceh, campaigns of the recent past included punitive burnings of villages accused of supporting the rebels and summary executions of independence sympathizers. Military excesses in Mindanao have also pushed Muslims on the island away from the government. While military action is popular with most Indonesians and Filipinos, analysts warn that there could be long-term repercussions.

"In the long term, you can weaken these groups, but leave behind so much bitterness and resentment that more radical ones take their place," Tan says.

In Indonesia, the military has been pressing for a return to all out warfare since a December peace agreement between GAM and the government. The deal allowed for unarmed international monitors to guarantee the peace. Indonesia's allies - especially Japan and the US - promised to pay for reconstruction in the province, which is home to large oil and gas deposits.

Senior generals warned that GAM would use a cease-fire to consolidate its strength, and that negotiating with them on an international stage would lend legitimacy to the movement. To a certain extent, the generals were right. GAM is probably stronger today than before the cease-fire was signed.

But analysts say the military was also worried that its political position within Indonesia would be compromised if negotiation, rather than combat, yielded results with separatists. They allege that the military mounted a campaign to scuttle the peace initiative, including organizing militias that burned the offices of the international peace monitors in at least two cities.

In recent months, Ms. Megawati has come to share the military's view that the war should be quickly resumed - telling aides that the rebels should be "crushed" - and her government demanded a unilateral GAM surrender as a precondition to future talks.

The Japanese government hosted last ditch talks in Tokyo last weekend. In a sign of hope, the White House issued a written statement by Bush. "I commend President Megawati for demonstrating her government's commitment to the Aceh peace process and for her willingness to go the extra mile in pursuit of peace." But the talks appeared doomed to fail before they started. Coordinating Security Minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a retired general, said that GAM would have to renounce any designs on independence in exchange for an extension of the cease-fire.

Gam turned down the proposal - akin to Israel demanding the Palestinian Liberation Organization renounce designs on statehood as a precondition for peace talks. On Sunday, martial law was declared; on Monday, the Indonesian Air Force launched sorties against rebel bases with OV-10F Bronco warplanes bought from the US in the 1970s.

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