A wary US watches an exile's return

At the same time, SCIRI is the only significant Shiite faction cooperating with other non-Shiite opposition parties to form a new US-backed government for Iraq. Hakim's younger brother, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, a SCIRI member, has been tapped to be part of the proposed interim government in Baghdad. SCIRI is considered by many to be more moderate that other Shiite factions, and within SCIRI, Hakim is considered a relative moderate.

"If the US leaves us and treats us with respect, we will have good relations, even if we are a Muslim state," says Ali Saidi, a religious Shiite leader from Al Amarah, who came to Basra to welcome the ayatollah. "Iran supported Hakim, but they can't tell him what foreign policies to adopt. He is independent."

The US seems unsure of what attitude it should adopt toward Hakim. The SCIRI has received protection and funding from Iran since 1980.

Even so, contacts between the US and the group date back more than a decade, with their shared opposition to Hussein's government and a general sense on the US side, according to one official, "that we could be worse off."

In 1999, President Clinton designated the SCIRI as one among seven Iraqi opposition groups eligible to receive tens of millions of dollars under the Iraq Liberation Act. The SCIRI turned down the money.

Administration officials have dismissed the idea that the next religious leadership to emerge here might be more radical and less malleable than they would like.

"If you're suggesting, 'How would we feel about an Iranian-style government with a few clerics running everything,' " said US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld last month, "the answer is it's not going to happen."

In practice, though, the US and its British coalition partners are, so far, taking a wait-and-see attitude.

"Here we are restoring democracy - so we have to let Hakim in and listen to what he has to say," says Lt. Col. Ronny McCourt, a spokesman for the British forces in Basra. "If he starts getting the crowds hysterical, then we will have to worry. But we are hoping he speaks moderately and logically. We won't be heavy-handed, but we also will not let the situation get out of hand."

In any case, it is unclear exactly what role Hakim wants to play, and whether he might be content filling a spiritual role alongside a democratic, secular government. Two major Iranian papers reported this month that Hakim is considering stepping down as head of the SCIRI and focusing his energies only on spiritual leadership. Last month in the holy Shiite city of Karbala, the younger Hakim hinted at his brother's plans, saying a single Iraqi spiritual leader would soon emerge.

Hakim's biggest challenge to such spiritual leadership would probably come from Moqtada al Sadr, the radical young son of a former top cleric killed by Hussein, who also has designs on spiritual leadership.

Mr. Sadr's followers have been blamed for the murder last month of a pro-Western Shiite cleric, who was stabbed to death within the compound of the holy shrine of the grand Imam Ali.

As Hakim makes his way across the south of Iraq to Najaf, supporters are lining the route, holding images of the leader. When he arrives, he will pray at that same shrine before addressing his supporters. Many in this country - like many in Washington - are watching the ayatollah's progress and waiting to see where this journey ultimately leads.

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