A wary US watches an exile's return

He returned to his homeland in a white Nissan SUV, engulfed by supporters, flanked by private bodyguards, and watched - from a distance - by the British Queen's Dragoon Guards. Seven sheep were slaughtered in his honor, yellow roses were tossed up high, and a few old men wiped away tears and spoke of miracles.

After 23 years' exile in Iran, Ayatollah Mohammed Bakr al-Hakim, head of Iraq's largest Shiite opposition group, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), crossed into Iraq this weekend and began positioning himself for a new role in this changed country.

The shape Mr. Hakim's leadership takes in coming weeks and months - and the attitude he adopts toward the foreign armies and government that created the conditions for his return - will go a long way toward determining whether Iraq becomes the secular, pro-Western democracy the US wants, or turns into one of the Bush administration's biggest concerns: an Iran-style, anti-US theocracy, and an oil-rich one at that.

Hundreds of men waited at the dusty Shalamjah border outpost to escort Hakim to the nearby city of Basra, and some 10,000 more thronged the city's stadium, cheering so loudly they could barely make out their leader's words. A few women, covered in black abayas, sat outside, holding posters of his likeness.

Hakim announced he would soon be heading back to the place where he belonged: Najaf, the holiest city for Shiites. And in his speech, he struck a moderate tone.

"The system must respect the makeup of the Iraqi people," he said. "The [new government] will be a modern Islamic regime ... to go along with ... today's world.... We don't want extremist Islam, but an Islam of independence, justice, and freedom."

Hikfi Fallah, a turbaned taxi driver, held up a green "Welcome Hakim," flag and smiled brightly. "We have been waiting for the ayatollah for too many years and we all want him to be our president," he said. "We all chant in our sleep: 'Yes Hakim! Yes Islam! Yes Freedom!' "

There seemed to be no Americans in the swaying crowds at the Basra stadium Saturday, but the US was undoubtedly straining to hear Hakim's address as much as anyone standing under the scorching sun.

About 60 percent of Iraq's estimated 24 million people are Shiite Muslims, but under Mr. Hussein's minority Sunni regime, they were violently suppressed. With the old regime out of the way, various Shiite factions are beginning to vie for, and fill, the power vacuum. Some 300 SCIRI activists, for example, have arrived in Najaf in recent weeks, and are working to restore electricity, supply medicine, mediate legal cases, and retrieve looted property.

There is more to these actions that mere benevolence. Like most other Shiite groups here, SCIRI advocates an Islamic state and opposes a US administration in Iraq. Hakim's military in exile - the Badr Brigades, said to have been trained by Iran's Revolutionary Guards and to number more than 10,000 men - have reportedly also begun moving into Iraq over the past weeks, gathering arms and setting up headquarters. Hakim himself is backed by top Iranian clerics, and his detractors worry that the Islamic Republic next door might use the ayatollah to wield control.

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