Iraqis shape plan for new government

"The political forces are mature forces, and they are the nucleus of the process," argues Dr. Abdul Mahdi. "Without them, we have nothing to drive the process."

All five groups appear to agree on the method for selecting delegates from around the country. "It is not real democracy, but it is as close as we can get at this stage to know the will of the people," says Abdul Mahdi.

The US signaled its interest in giving new impetus to the political process with the appointment earlier this week of Paul Bremer, a veteran State Department official, to oversee Iraq's postwar political administration. The US says it wants Iraqi politicians to lead their country to democracy, but it must approve the system the former opposition leaders choose.

"Till now the Americans have said 'ye-'. We need them to say a real 'yes,' " says Abdul Mahdi.

US officials are dubious about the unpredictability of the selection process, says Leith Kubbeh, an Iraq expert at the National Endowment for Democracy in Washington, who has been working on plans for democratizing the country.

"They don't want to do it because they don't know who they will have in the room" at the conference, he says. "But that is a small price to pay for getting Iraq on the right track."

Under the plan being developed, the assembly, as well as electing an interim government, would also be responsible for drafting a new constitution and organizing a census, to prepare for elections for a permanent government within 24 months.

US officials have drawn encouragement about the prospects for democratic development in Iraq from the northern city of Mosul. The country's most ethnically diverse city, it has set up a council, under US supervision, of 24 elected members from six ethnic groups. All were sworn in by the city's chief judge on Monday.

IN Baghdad, the leadership council was expected to invite at least two more members to join it - most likely a Sunni Muslim figure and a leader from the Islamist Dawa Party, which was fiercely repressed by Mr. Hussein. At a later stage, one or two more members, perhaps including a Christian, will be asked to participate, according to sources close to the council.

That would further diversify what is already a highly disparate group, ranging from proponents of an Islamic state to defenders of a Western style liberal democratic society.

"It seems that we are all working in the same direction," says Abdul Mahdi. "But it is still only words, and until now there has been no real action."

Many independent observers, however, expect the parties, who have been allied off and on since 1992, to reach an agreement. "The more steps that are called interim and not final the better," suggests Professor Ramiz. "That gives parties the hope that they can maneuver, and that if they don't win today, they might win tomorrow."

At the same time, he adds, political leaders have more freedom of action now than they might have had when ordinary Iraqis paid close attention to politics.

For the time being, he says, "the Iraqi public is less inclined to be politicized than it used to be. They are exhausted as a civil society, but they know the benefits of an affluent life" that only political stability can bring.

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