Roadblocks on the road map to Middle East peace

US envoy William Burns met Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas Monday in advance of a visit here next week by Secretary of State Colin Powell. Mr. Burns met with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon Sunday. The visits are part of a renewed push to settle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through the road map.

Phase 1: End of violence Phase 2: Transition to separate states Phase 3: Permanent status agreement View full text

Related stories: 04/30/03 Elbowed over, Arafat still reigns 04/28/03 Peaceful activists caught in fight 04/25/03 Arafat deal paves way for peace plan 04/15/03 Israelis struggle to interpret Sharon's 'concessions' 04/09/03 The road to reconciliation?

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An internationally backed plan, the road map is designed to establish a Palestinian state by 2005.

But the issues that stymied talks during the Oslo peace process in the early '90s remain unresolved and must be tackled anew. The difference now is that whatever fragile trust existed before conflict erupted in September 2000 has been shattered.

Indeed, Israelis and Palestinians, cynical after Oslo's failure, are pessimistic about the plan's chances. The issues they cite - including settlements, and questions about each other's intentions and US commitment - reveal a profound mutual distrust. The suspicions themselves have become another stumbling block. Here is a look at some of the major challenges facing the road map.

Mutual suspicion

Neither side believes the other is ready and willing to honor the letter or spirit of the road map. Many Israelis point to the continued presence of leader Yasser Arafat as proof that Palestinian political reform has not been genuine. And they predict Palestinians will continue to use violence in defiance of Israeli and US insistence that negotiations cannot begin unless militants are disarmed.

"There is absolutely no precedent in the history of the Palestinian political structure to disarm any group," says Gerald Steinberg, a political scientist at Bar Ilan University outside Tel Aviv. "The concept of armed struggle and use of violence to reach goals is so deeply engrained."

Palestinians say that Israel, under Mr. Sharon, has no real intention of allowing the creation of a viable state. They point to Sharon's lifelong support for Israeli settlements, his hostility to a Palestinian state, and the limits he would impose on one.

Any Palestinian state would be completely demilitarized, and Israel would control all entries and exits and command its airspace, Sharon said in a December 2002 speech.

This week, Palestinians are questioning Sharon's silence since the road map was presented. While Mr. Abbas has called for immediate implementation of the road map, Sharon has issued a statement saying he received the document "for the purpose of formulating comments on the wording."

"This Israeli government is coming from an ideology and political strategy that is completely incompatible with basic notions on which this road map is built," says Palestinian Labor Minister Ghassan Khatib.

Uncertainty about US commitment

Many Palestinians are skeptical about the US commitment to helping them establish a state. European diplomats in Washington quietly echo their concerns.

Palestinians say the US is acting solely out of concern for its ambitions in Iraq. They say the US wants to be seen acting on a Middle Eastern flash point to defuse Arab anger about Iraq.

Skeptics also point to US domestic politics. With a national election around the corner in 2004, they don't believe President Bush would alienate the powerful pro-Israeli lobby by pushing Israel to make room for a Palestinian state.

There are "very good reasons to be skeptical about President Bush's determination to follow through," says Henry Siegman, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. "But I believe that the president - despite elections - has the ability to do this without paying a price. The American Jewish community wants to see the issue resolved and will not punish him for taking a strong stand that the road map must go forward. It's absolutely doable from a domestic point of view," says Mr. Siegman. "But I don't know if that view is shared by the people who run his [election] campaign."

Without US involvement, Palestinians say there is little hope. "Unless the US is really going to play the role of the neutral and fair arbiter, or at least allow the quartet [of powers that back the plan] to play such a role, Israel will simply have no incentive to abide by its obligations," says a Palestinian official who asked not to be named.

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Israeli settlements in the West Bank and Gaza Strip

ADAM WEISKIND - STAFF; MOUNTAIN HIGH MAPS © 1993 DIGITAL WISDOM INC. SOURCE: FOUNDATION FOR MIDDLE EAST PEACE, 2002