India, Pakistan suddenly talk peace

Many analysts also give Pakistan credit for starting the dialogue as well. Most importantly, there have been some hints that Pakistan may be willing to push off discussion on Kashmir, at least for the near future. The last attempt at peace, at a summit held in the Indian city of Agra in 2001, failed because Pakistan insisted Kashmir was the central issue for dialogue.

"Pakistan always said Kashmir was the central dispute," Jha says. "Now we're hearing that they'll talk about other issues. So there's also been some rethinking in Pakistan, I think."

Pakistan is also trying to show India - and the United States - it is serious about combating terrorism originating from its soil. The government announced last week it would take action against banned terrorist groups that have reinvented themselves with new names. Pakistan cracked down on several groups last year at the behest of the US, but many of them have since regrouped.

"We are committed to purge our society of terrorism and our every action must speak of our resolve," Pakistan's information minister said.

Cynics here say India is only interested in peace talks because its attempt to threaten Pakistan with military force failed to curb cross-border terrorism. India mobilized several hundred thousand troops along its border with Pakistan late in 2001 after an attack on India's parliament by Pakistan-based militants, but Pakistan dispatched its own forces, and a stalemate ensued.

"The Indian government got tough with Pakistan, it mobilized its forces on the border, and nothing happened," Chenoy says. "So now they have no choice but to start looking at possible talks."

"India realized that the confrontational strategy did not yield results, that it was a total failure," says Suba Chandran, a security analyst at the Delhi-based Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies.

Some say political changes in both countries and in the global environment have helped propel the diplomatic activity. In India, successful state elections in Kashmir - which displaced the allies of the central government's Hindu nationalists - appear to have won over many ordinary Kashmiris and diminished support for the militants' cause.

The militants have long argued that the Indian government is oppressing Kashmiris. In Pakistan, the recent return of a civilian administration - with a prime minister and a parliament - has given India new leaders to talk to.

India's leaders deeply distrust President Musharraf, whom they view as a military dictator. The US-led war on terrorism has forced Pakistan to reevaluate its longstanding support for militants in Kashmir, IDSA's Bhaskar says. "My sense is that after the Iraq war, the space available for a regime to support any form of terrorism is shrinking, so I think Pakistan has picked that up."

Taking the peace initiative was a courageous move for both sides, analysts say, and leaders in both countries will be walking a diplomatic tightrope to keep the process on track.

India cannot be viewed domestically as softening its stance against cross-border terrorism, and Pakistan will forego popular support for the peace initiative if it agrees to sideline the Kashmir issue completely.

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