India, Pakistan suddenly talk peace

Mr. Vajpayee's peace initiatives reportedly took many of his own party members aback, including deputy prime minister L.K. Advani, who thought Vajpayee would simply be giving a nudge to the newly appointed peace negotiator N. N. Vohra. But they were warmly received by Pakistan's Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Jamali, who invited Vajpayee to visit Pakistan at his convenience.

Vajpayee announced renewed diplomatic ties with Pakistan and restored air travel links. Pakistan responded in kind. The prime minister also said at least some of the violence in Kashmir might be out of Pakistan's control, a statement designed to help his government save face with domestic critics.

Uday Bhaskar, deputy director of the Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis in New Delhi, says the prime minister is determined to leave behind a legacy of peace, and is prepared to use the reins of power to do that. "This is the last chance for him personally to try and take this relationship forward," Bhaskar says. "I think he's asserting his primacy in the domestic politics of India."

The prime minister's statement in parliament followed a flurry of diplomatic activity over the last several days. Pakistan's prime minister, Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali, phoned Vajpayee on April 28 and invited the Indian prime minister to Pakistan. It was the first direct contact between Indian and Pakistani leaders in more than two years.

The drama has been tempered since then with follow up statements - Indian officials say their fundamental stance on terrorism has not changed - but the mood in the Indian capital for peace talks is gaining ground.

A common explanation is that US pressure is behind the peace overtures - that India and Pakistan are paving the way for a smooth visit by Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage's visit to the region this week.

While Washington says it has always encouraged India and Pakistan to talk out its issues, and denies recent Indian reports of laying out a "roadmap on Kashmir," recent moves by the US State Department have clearly shown that the US is giving more attention to the region.

Last week, the US added three more Pakistan-based extremist groups to its growing list of terrorist organizations. The largest of the three, Hizbul Mujahideen, is the oldest and largest Kashmiri militant group. By whittling away at groups that Pakistan regards as "freedom fighters," the US has undercut Pakistan's options and its claim of providing only "diplomatic and moral support" for the Kashmiri separatist movement.

Prem Shankar Jha, a columnist for the leading magazine Outlook, says the peace moves are intended to fend off future US intervention in the region. "The basic feeling is that if we start talking, we can keep away further intrusion by the US. I think both sides agree on that."

The US has made clear its main concern in the region is nuclear proliferation - India and Pakistan announced themselves as nuclear powers in 1998 and came under US sanctions thereafter. The sanctions have since been lifted, but India, in particular, worries that increased US engagement in the region could translate into renewed pressure to discontinue its nuclear weapons research, which the Hindu nationalist government here considers one of its major achievements.

"The fear among the Indian establishment is that if they don't start talking to Pakistan, the Americans will try to cap their nuclear programs," says Kamal Mitra Chenoy, an international studies professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi.

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