After 16 months of stony silence, interrupted by the near outbreak of war last June, India and Pakistan are suddenly making all the right moves to start peace talks.

Monday, Pakistan raised the stakes by offering to get rid of its nuclear arsenal if India followed suit.

The reasons for this spring warming trend - initiated by India - are still coming to light. But they range from the swift US victory in Iraq and mounting concern over nuclear proliferation and terrorism to a legacy quest by India's ailing prime minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee.

Diplomats here say this may be the best chance in years to defuse tensions between two nuclear powers that have fought three wars in the past half century. "The most interesting thing about these peace moves is that they come when absolutely nothing is happening on the ground," says a Western diplomat who monitors the Kashmir dispute closely.

The warmup is all the more unlikely, given the lack of any real improvement of 50-year dispute over the Himalayan state of Jammu and Kashmir, which both India and Pakistan claim. Since January 2002, more than 3,600 civilians, Indian forces, and Islamic separatists have died in the picturesque vale of Kashmir, which has been the site of three major Indo-Pakistani conflicts. Fifty-six have been killed in the last week alone.

"There has been no proof that infiltrations are down; in fact they appear to have gone up," says the diplomat. "There's been no proof that Pakistan has curbed extremist groups. And what is more remarkable is that India's ruling party is putting aside a major policy, the security issue, that has been its operating concept for the coming election year."

Whatever their reasons, leaders from both countries have as much to lose from halting peace talks now as they do from merely starting them, and with the international community less distracted by events in Iraq and Afghanistan, there can be increased support - if not strong-armed pressure - for a resolution of lasting Indo-Pakistani issues.

If there is any danger now, diplomats say, it may be that the news media and major international players may raise expectations too high, and push for a resolution too soon.

"The higher the expectations get, the more risky the operation gets," says the Western diplomat says. "The chances of repeating past mistakes is obvious. The Indian government is never comfortable having the media hype a summit during an election year. The whole delicate balance may be damaged by too high expectations from outside."

In Delhi, some experts say the impetus comes not from US pressure, but from Prime Minister Vajpayee. In mid-April, he visited the state of Kashmir and offered what he called a hand of friendship to Pakistan to resolve their differences. Last week, he delivered an emotional speech in parliament, describing what he said will be his last push for peace.

"This round of talks will be decisive, and at least for my life, these will be the last," he told Indian lawmakers. "...We are committed to the improvement of relations with Pakistan, and we are willing to grasp every opportunity for doing so."

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