US split on handling N. Korea

"The lesson Kim seems to have taken from Iraq is, if you want to avoid Iraq's future, have a workable nuclear fission device," says James Mulvenon of the RAND Corporation. Tuesday, official Pyongyang news wires stated that it would be "pointless" to continue with talks, if the US demands that it scrap its nuclear program.

There is no certainty the North actually does possess the nuclear capability it claims. The declaration to Kelly by Ri Gun, the low-ranking North Korean official, was reportedly made during a coffee break. It may well have been a bluff - though if so, it would give ammunition to regime change-oriented officials who already say the North can't be trusted. Mr. Ri's evident statement that the North has already reprocessed all 8,000 of its spent plutonium fuel rods is doubted by US intelligence officials.

Still, given the North's potential to develop and sell weapons, "there aren't many choices [for the White House]," says Don Oberdorfer, author of "Two Koreas." "You either negotiate, which doesn't mean giving in. Or you accept North Korea as a nuclear power and try to limit what they do with their material. Or you don't live with it, and attack."

What the White House is hoping for, however - perhaps counting on - is that the Chinese will play an increasingly decisive role. Some former US officials like Mr. Campbell feel that for a diplomatic solution that emerges from the State Department, "China is the linchpin."

Just how much cooperation is taking place between the US and China is a closely guarded secret in Beijing. China does not want to damage its old and valued channels to Pyongyang. Yet some former US officials with close ties to the administration say China and the US have taken enormous quiet steps behind the scenes in recent months, and have become nearly "strategic partners," as one knowledgeable source puts it.

"For there to be a real second round of talks will require the active participation of China, and in the next few weeks, we will see if there is any [participation], with respect to Beijing," says Derek Mitchell, an Asia expert with CSIS.

Yet many China hands in Beijing have doubts about the degree of cooperation the country will take. China's role in bringing the US and North Korea to the table is in its own interest; China does not want a war or flood of refugees from North Korea, and desires to keep a buffer zone between its borders and US bases in South Korea. But whether Beijing can so quickly shift its historical distance from the US is viewed with pessimism even by supporters.

Shi Yinhong of People's University, an advocate for closer Washington-Beijing ties, says that it is "still US policy that is the key to dealing with the North. I think the American media has originated the idea that China can do something."

Page: 1 | 2