In Iraq, a void that breeds mistrust

Trying to fill that vacuum in Baghdad is a committee headed by Mohammed Zubaidi, an INC member, who, coordinating with US military officers, has set about recruiting former Iraqi policemen to maintain order in the capital.

But his writ does not run far in this sprawling city of five million, where local religious leaders enjoy far more influence. Across Baghdad, and particularly in the predominantly Shiite Muslim district once known as Saddam City, clerics are setting up armed neighborhood watch patrols, recovering looted goods, and imposing their authority from the pulpit.

Thirty-five years of Baath Party dictatorship, which brutally repressed any opposition, has rooted out every sign of civil society and every institution in Iraq that might offer the foundations for a new beginning - except the mosques.

"In such circumstances, events could lead more to extremism than to moderation, hence the need for the Americans to handle Iraqi politics with great care," cautions Professor Ramiz.

The general mood of resentment at the prospect of anything that resembles an American occupation government poses a dilemma for the INC, whose leaders are little known in Iraq, but identified with the US.

In order to garner popular support, they will have to distance themselves from the United States, while yet maintaining their all-important ties to Washington.

"How distant can an Iraqi government be" from the global superpower that installed it, wonders Ramiz. At the same time, he argues, "The future of democracy and moderation in Iraq rests entirely on whether democrats and liberals here appear as quislings to their own people."

Iraqi nationalism is a potent enough force, he adds, that "pride and dignity must be (the democrats') banner. If pride and dignity are not on the democrats' side, they will be taken up by the fundamentalists, and there will be a revolution."

Mr. Sethna, the INC spokesman, insists that his party "is not beholden to anybody" and that "it is not our wish or intention to be anointed by anybody."

But if Iraqis feel they do not decide their destiny, he says, "if some kind of system is set up where Iraqis are not in control, then we'll find that every single party will run on an antioccupation platform."

The leaders of the former opposition forces, elected last February at a meeting in northern Iraq, are planning to hold another conference as soon as possible in Baghdad, Sethna said Thursday, at which the next steps for Iraq's re-creation will be discussed.

Their decisions will be eagerly awaited by a people uncertain of their future. At the moment, Ramiz believes, "they have guarded optimism, and I hope the Americans will justify that by establishing a real democracy and setting a timetable for the withdrawal of their troops."

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