Syria yields - a bit - to pressure

Diplomatic pressure exerted by the United States against Syria could force Damascus to moderate its tone, but is unlikely to usher in the radical changes that would satisfy hard-line administration officials, analysts say.

Secretary of State Colin Powell has deflected speculation of a possible military strike on Syria, instead raising the prospect of imposing political and economic sanctions against Damascus. But even sanctions may only have a limited impact, analysts say.

The imminent use of military force against Syria has been effectively ruled out, with Mr. Powell stating on Tuesday that Washington has no "war plans" for regime change in any other country. National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice is known to oppose military action and President Bush has reportedly rejected a contingency plan for an attack on Syria drawn up by the Pentagon. Powell is even reported to be planning a trip to Damascus shortly.

But the stunning demonstration of US military might in removing the regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq has left a powerful impression on other Arab countries that have earned Washington's ire, says Patrick Seale, the biographer of Hafez al-Assad, the former Syrian president who died in 2000.

"I don't think one should underestimate the alarm felt in the region. There is real fear," he says.

Mr. Seale suggests that Syria, which has won praise from US officials for cooperating in the fight against Al Qaeda since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, may place restraints on Hizbullah in Lebanon and may lower the level of its opposition to the US occupation of Iraq. The first public indications of a more accommodating stance from Damascus came Wednesday with expressions of willingness to cooperate with the US over Iraq and a proposal by Syrian Foreign Minister Farouq al-Sharaa to submit a resolution to the United Nations Security Council calling for a total ban on weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East.

"I think diplomacy is working," says Mohammed Aziz Shukri, professor of international law at Damascus University. "We need to avoid any confrontation with the US, either directly or indirectly."

But Damascus Thursday appeared to reverse its previous acceptance to allow weapons inspectors to search for weapons of mass destruction, saying the proposed UN resolution would make inspections unnecessary. Also, Damascus has ruled out one key US demand - closing offices of groups Washington calls terrorist organizations such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Syria argues they are legitimate resistance groups opposing Israeli occupation of Arab land. Similarly, Syria is not expected to curtail its support for Hizbullah, which it views as a strategic asset in fending off potential Israeli aggression.

Seale says that Syria is still answerable to Arab nationalist policies and therefore cannot be seen as yielding completely to US dictates.

"The Syrians are in for a rough landing. It will be a big test for young Bashar [al-Assad]," he says, referring to the 37-year-old Syrian president.

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