North Korea softens on talks

If North Korea really does want the multilateral talks now hinted at by Pyongyang officials, it would mark the first major concession by hard-boiled Korean negotiators since the North admitted a secret uranium program last October.

If genuine, North Korea's shift toward a softer policy may be an important diplomatic consequence of a US campaign in Iraq that has suddenly featured graphic images of Saddam Hussein's statue being toppled in a city square in Baghdad, analysts say. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, who has nearly as many public statues of himself, has been touring military bases in the North for two weeks. South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun said Saturday that the North is fearful the US will next turn its military sites on Pyongyang. Officials in Seoul said Sunday that by dropping demands for direct talks with the US, the North is taking a "significant step toward opening."

Analysts offer various interpretations of the North's move. Some see it as a sign that Kim has few options. Others say it is a way for the North to appear reasonable on the world stage. Still others call it a "buying time" strategy reminiscent of cold war years when Soviets proposed talks when they felt their capability was lagging.

The North's hint came via an interview conducted by the official KCNA news service with a North Korean Foreign Ministry official - a format often regarded as a quasi-official statement of policy. If the US is prepared to make a "bold switchover," North officials said, they "will not stick to any particular dialogue format" in negotiations. Less reported is a caveat from the North suggesting that multilateral talks would require the US to "give up its hostile attitude" toward the North. "That can mean any of a thousand things," says Shim Jae-hoon, an expert on North Korea here. "We don't know what it means."

The White House is unlikely to back too far down from a simple position that North Korea must "abandon" its two nuclear programs in a way that is verifiable, as Secretary of State Colin Powell argues. The hard question, experts say, will be verification. Even if Kim declares he has abandoned his uranium and plutonium programs, it is unlikely the US will accept less than total verification - requiring wide and unimpeded access to North Korean sites that have never been opened to the outside world. On Friday, North Korea unflatteringly compared UN inspections to "dropping our pants."

A number of factors unfavorable to Mr. Kim appear to have spurred this latest move. The Iraq war has brought a degree of shock and awe to North Korean thinking - "petrified," is the word used by President Roh in an interview with The Washington Post. Pressure from China, which supplies more than half the North's energy, is another possible cause, diplomatic sources say. Nor is Kim unaware of the needs of the South Koreans. The biggest proponent of the kind of massive aid and rebuilding Kim desires are unification-minded officials in Seoul. But in recent months, the nuclear standoff has started to seriously harm the South Korean economy.

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