'Smoking gun' may not affect world's opinion

While the discovery of weapons may do little to win over critics, some analysts say a failure to uncover them could intensify international opposition to the war. "You would get a reverberation from abroad - the I-told-you-sos, saying that the US didn't have the sort of evidence they claimed to have," says Eric Larson, an expert on public opinion and war at RAND. Some of this criticism could seep into US public opinion, he says.

Certainly, at the start of the conflict, finding weapons of mass destruction was a top priority for most Americans as well as for the international community. A Gallup poll taken just after the fighting began found that only 38 percent of Americans thought the war would be justified if the coalition did not uncover any forbidden weapons. But in a new Gallup survey, that number jumped to 58 percent.

To some extent, this shift may reflect that the hunt for weapons has moved to the back burner, as the military - and the media - has focused on more immediate battle objectives. The shift may also have been hastened by the rhetoric of US officials, who in speeches and press briefings have moved away from emphasizing the importance of disarming Iraq to focusing on the liberation of the Iraqi people.

Some analysts argue that uncovering weapons of mass destruction was never a top priority for Americans, and that most will remain supportive of the war regardless of the outcome of the weapons hunt. "There's really only one non-negotiable thing that the US has to accomplish," says Mr. Larson. "And that is getting rid of Saddam and his regime."

Yet others believe that the current lack of demand for weapons evidence merely reflects an overall "rally effect," in which the public is inclined to support the president and the troops, and is loath to question the purpose of the conflict.

"Once you have a kind of investment - once blood has been spilled - there is going to naturally be a tendency to not say that it was done in vain," says Mr. Kull.

Polls show that the public still largely expects chemical and biological weapons will be found. According to a recent Los Angeles Times survey, 75 percent of Americans are confident that coalition troops will uncover weapons of mass destruction.

And as the rally effect wears off, the search for weapons may reemerge as an important focus in the postwar period - particularly since it was a key component behind many people's original decision to support the war, Kull says. Many Americans overcame their initial uneasiness about invading without UN support by concluding that the US was acting in self-defense: "The public had to kind of stretch to get there, but that was a key element in their coming round," he says. If no evidence of forbidden weapons emerges, that argument may no longer hold up.

Indeed, one place where finding WMDs is still important is at 10 Downing Street. "It will be very embarrassing for [British Prime Minster Tony] Blair if they are not found," notes Gary Samore, a nonproliferation expert at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London.

Among Americans who approve of the war in Iraq, disarmament is listed by 86 percent as a 'major' reason to oust Saddam Hussein. But high percentages also see other reasons as major:

Reason/Percent

Disarmament of Iraq 86%

Iraq's ties to groups like Al Qaeda 80

Regime change 79

Liberation of Iraq 74

Iraq poses an imminent threat to U.S. interests 72

Iraq poses a threat to US-friendly Arab nations 66

Iraq poses a threat to Israel 55

Source: Christian Science Monitor/TIPP poll, April 1-6

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