'Smoking gun' may not affect world's opinion

As coalition troops move closer to victory in Iraq, they are facing an unexpected, and possibly uncomfortable, scenario: The war may be over before any weapons of mass destruction - the primary justification for the conflict in the eyes of many - are uncovered.

Three weeks into the invasion, the few discoveries the coalition has made may turn out to be nothing more than simple pesticides. US officials say the bulk of the search may be put off until the country is secured. Even then it may take months.

Despite the fixation on finding a "smoking gun," experts say in the end it may not make that much difference in the way the world perceives the justification for the war. At home, polls show that a vast majority of Americans not only approve of the invasion, but that most no longer regard finding weapons of mass destruction as essential to the war's success.

Likewise, in the international arena, analysts say perceptions about the war have hardened to the point where discoveries of weapons may have little impact on public opinion. Ultimately, American and international opinion may turn out to be similar in that it is strong - though divergent - core values that underpin support or opposition to the war, and not what is now increasingly perceived as the "secondary" issue of chemical and biological weapons.

Still, as the coalition moves into the messy postwar period - when the full costs of the conflict become more apparent - its ability to back up its initial claims about hidden weapons with evidence could be important in determining future levels of support both abroad and at home.

"At this point, [finding weapons of mass destruction] is not essential to the public's continuing support," says Steven Kull, director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland. "But it probably would be essential to a retrospective confidence that the war was necessary once we get into the more difficult postwar phase."

To some extent, it may already be too late to win over critics in the international community, weapons or no weapons, say experts. Much of the opposition in Europe and the Middle East "has to do with the fact that this is being done by the world's superpower," says Karlyn Bowman, a public-opinion expert at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. The discovery of banned weapons "probably won't change that."

And some experts note that opposition to the war is so strong and suspicion of US motives so pervasive that many in the international community may question any major weapons discoveries that are made.

"Even if large amounts of these weapons were found, I could imagine the public in Germany and around Europe questioning whether the finds were true or simply planted evidence," says Jens Van Scherpenberg, a security expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin.

Some war opponents may even excuse Iraq's possession of banned weapons as the country's only means of standing up to American aggression. "In France, there are people who think Saddam Hussein had some reason to want to hide his arms, if that was the only way to confront American might," says Philippe Moreau Defarges, a senior fellow at the French Institute of International relations in Paris.

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