Competing visions for post-war Iraq

"The last thing you want are France and Russia on the ground [in Iraq after the war] trying to protect their own economic interests," says Nile Gardiner, a visiting fellow in Anglo-American security policy at the Heritage Foundation. The US should follow a key principle: only members of the "coalition of the willing" should have any say and part in post-war Iraq.

Mr. Gardiner opposes UN involvement in Iraq because the "UN lacks total moral authority," he says, pointing out that the world body failed to enforce 17 resolutions breached by Iraq. For this reason, "It's imperative that in the weeks ahead the Bush administration rebuff UN plans for a central role in the post-war government."

Instead, he expects to see a US-British appointed administration governing the country for six months to a year. It will be headed by retired US Gen. Jay Garner, the man Mr. Bush has eyed for the job. This body will be charged with assembling an interim Iraqi authority that will be responsible for planning nationwide elections.

"The key thing here is to do the job well and to demonstrate that the US has the interests of the Iraqi people at heart," says Gardiner. The British, who have centuries of experience in running foreign countries, will be extremely valuable to the partnership, he adds.

That kind of thinking will only lead the US and Britain into serious trouble, says Robert Mabro, director of the UK's Oxford Institute of Energy Studies. He says Britain's experience as a colonial power in the past century is irrelevant in the current context, especially when the US is trying to shy away from being perceived as a neocolonial power.

Karkouti points out that the US has very limited experience in this kind of intervention and that it has never been a colonial power as such. He cautions the US against believing it can extensively draw on its experience in Afghanistan, because the situation in Iraq is "totally different. It is huge, vast, rich, with large amounts of oil.... The ethnic fabric of the country is totally different (from that of Afghanistan) and is surrounded by neighbors who have extended ethnic populations in Iraq."

"Iraq being Iraq," says Mr. Mabro, originally from neighboring Syria, "you can be sure that for many years you're going to be in trouble.... You may end up staying far longer than you intended to. And if you stay, you'll be dragged into the security problem."

"If the US and Britain are clever, they'll say to the UN 'please take it off our hands.' "

While it is highly unlikely that the coalition will side with the Europeans, the issue of the interim government will be discussed when Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair hold a war council in Northern Ireland on Monday and Tuesday.

Wire reports were used in this article.

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