Troops gird for muzzle-to-muzzle combat

There's another important parallel with Afghanistan, he says. "Everyone is fixated on the Shiites and Kurds and to a lesser extent the Sunnis, Turkmens, and Christian Chaldeans. But these large groups also are divided into 150 major and some 2,000 minor tribal units where you can have varying alliances and cabals that have nothing to do with being for or against Saddam and the Baath Party."

For now, the main goal is securing Baghdad, a city of 4.6 million people that spreads over an area the size of Atlanta. The key US asset could be Iraqis themselves, especially the Shiites who make up nearly half the city's population. They must be convinced that it's in their interest to cooperate with the bulked-up Americans in their suits of body armor. And soon after, they must see that the US and its allies mean what they say about rebuilding the country.

"We should be carpet-bombing the place with doctors, nurses, public-health people, education restart helpers," says retired Navy Capt. Larry Seaquist.

At Sunday's Central Command briefing, new photos of schools being reopened in parts of southern Iraq were added to the usual videos of bombs destroying Iraqi tanks and aircraft.

President Bush and military briefers also take pointed note of the tons of US wheat being delivered to secured areas of Iraq. That's an important element of humanitarian aid (also, incidentally, a key domestic political issue in farm states). But Iraq has large agricultural capacity, and more important long term will be restoring those to productivity.

One early goal: restoring power and taking over state radio and TV facilities. Power is needed not only to communicate but also to run water and sanitation facilities. If people can be persuaded not to leave (or to return home if they've fled) because water and power are back on, the humanitarian situation can be alleviated - at least for the short term.

One tricky issue is how to handle the elusive Mr. Hussein. There's a degree of wishful thinking in US officials saying he's "isolated and irrelevant." If he's not alive, his specter in the form of body doubles has been able to make a pointed presence - which must be inspiring to some Iraqis and intimidating to others who might otherwise be willing to throw in with the "liberators."

All of this will be heavily intelligence-driven. It will combine the information provided by Special Operations and CIA assets, those Iraqis who feel secure enough to collaborate with the Americans, and the newest high-tech gear such as "Hunter" pilotless drones. (Historical note: This war has seen the largest use of Special Operations Forces since the Vietnam War.)

US soldiers and marines no doubt will prevail in the end, but several major challenges and dangers remain. The world is full of Stingers and other portable air-defense systems. It will thus take a while to make the newly renamed Baghdad International Airport safe for US aircraft. Also, Baghdad has many miles of hardened tunnels and underground bunkers. Securing those will be dangerous work.

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